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Tropical Depression Boris Forecast Discussion Number 8
2020-06-26 10:47:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM HST Thu Jun 25 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 260847 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Boris Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032020 1100 PM HST Thu Jun 25 2020 Deep convection associated with Boris has been pulsing the past several hours, but overall there has been a general decrease in coverage and depth of the associated thunderstorm activity. The initial intensity has been lowered to 30 kt based on a 0525Z ASCAT-A pass. The combination of the entrainment of dry mid-level air and marginal sea-surface temperatures is expected to produce a slow weakening trend over the next 72 hours. The new NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory, and calls for Boris to degenerate into a remnant low by 60 h, and dissipate shortly after 72 h. The initial motion estimate is west-northwestward or 290/07 kt. The forecast reasoning remains unchanged from the previous advisory, and the new NHC track forecast is essentially just an update of the previous advisory track. Boris is expected to move west-northwestward during the next day or so while the small cyclone remains to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge. After that time, Boris is forecast to turn westward, then west-southwestward later in the forecast period as the cyclone weakens even further and is steered by the low-level trade wind flow. The updated NHC forecast track is very close to the previous official track forecast, and lies near the southern edge of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 11.6N 138.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 11.9N 139.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 12.2N 140.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 12.4N 141.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 28/0600Z 12.3N 143.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 28/1800Z 12.0N 145.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 29/0600Z 11.7N 147.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Boris Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2020-06-26 10:39:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUN 26 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 260839 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BORIS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032020 0900 UTC FRI JUN 26 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BORIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 138.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 145W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression Boris Forecast Advisory Number 8
2020-06-26 10:35:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUN 26 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 260835 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BORIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032020 0900 UTC FRI JUN 26 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 138.5W AT 26/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 138.5W AT 26/0900Z AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 138.2W FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 11.9N 139.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 12.2N 140.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 12.4N 141.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 12.3N 143.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 12.0N 145.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 11.7N 147.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.6N 138.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression Three-E Graphics
2020-06-25 16:39:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 25 Jun 2020 14:39:57 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 25 Jun 2020 14:39:58 GMT
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Tropical Depression Three-E Forecast Discussion Number 5
2020-06-25 16:36:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 AM HST Thu Jun 25 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 251436 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Three-E Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032020 500 AM HST Thu Jun 25 2020 Convection has increased some this morning near the center of Tropical Depression 3-E, although the convective bands are poorly organized. The initial intensity remains 30 kt in agreement with satellite intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB, along with scatterometer data from several hours ago. Although the depression has not intensified since yesterday, the intensity guidance suggests that the window for strengthening is open for about another 12-24 h. So, the intensity forecast shows slight strengthening during that period. After that time, increasing vertical wind shear and dry air entrainment should cause the system to weaken, leading to it degenerating to a remnant low by 72 h and dissipating completely after 96 h. The new intensity forecast is a little above the intensity consensus. The initial motion is westward or 280/8. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected during the next 24 h as the system moves along the south side of a low- to mid-level ridge. After that, a turn toward the west and west-southwest is forecast as the cyclone weakens and the low-level trade winds become the dominant steering mechanism. The new forecast track is an update of the previous forecast and lies the near consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 10.8N 136.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 11.2N 137.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 11.7N 138.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 12.0N 139.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 12.2N 140.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 28/0000Z 12.3N 141.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 28/1200Z 12.2N 143.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 29/1200Z 11.5N 148.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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