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Tropical Depression Boris Graphics
2020-06-26 22:33:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 26 Jun 2020 20:33:41 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 26 Jun 2020 20:33:41 GMT
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Tropical Depression Boris Forecast Discussion Number 10
2020-06-26 22:32:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM HST Fri Jun 26 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 262032 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Boris Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032020 1100 AM HST Fri Jun 26 2020 Visible satellite imagery shows that the center of Boris is a little farther to the north than indicated in the previous advisory. The cyclone has a good low-level circulation, but the associated convection is currently disorganized due to a combination of southerly vertical wind shear and mid-level dry air entrainment. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt as a blend of various satellite intensity estimates. A combination of shear, dry mid-level air, and marginal sea-surface temperatures is expected to cause slow weakening, with the cyclone now forecast to degenerate to a remnant low by 48 h and dissipate completely after 60 h. The new intensity forecast is little changed from the previous forecast and lies near the intensity consensus. The initial motion is a little uncertain, with the best estimate 315/6. Boris should turn west-northwestward during the next 12 h or so while the small cyclone remains to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge. Subsequently, the weakening cyclone is forecast to turn westward and west-southwestward with some increase in forward speed in the low-level trade wind flow. The new official track forecast follows the general direction of the previous one, but with some adjustments from the previous forecast due to the more northward initial position. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 12.5N 139.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 12.7N 139.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 12.9N 140.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 28/0600Z 12.9N 142.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 28/1800Z 12.7N 144.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 29/0600Z 12.3N 146.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Boris Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2020-06-26 22:32:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUN 26 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 262032 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BORIS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032020 2100 UTC FRI JUN 26 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BORIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 139.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Tropical Depression Boris (EP3/EP032020)
2020-06-26 22:32:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CENTER OF BORIS IS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT... As of 11:00 AM HST Fri Jun 26 the center of Boris was located near 12.5, -139.1 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Boris Public Advisory Number 10
2020-06-26 22:32:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM HST Fri Jun 26 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 262031 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Boris Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032020 1100 AM HST Fri Jun 26 2020 ...CENTER OF BORIS IS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.5N 139.1W ABOUT 1170 MI...1885 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII ABOUT 2045 MI...3290 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Boris was located near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 139.1 West. The depression is now moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is expected later today or tonight, with a turn toward the west-southwest expected by Saturday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Boris is forecast to degenerate to a remnant low pressure area by Sunday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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