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Tropical Depression Three-E Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-06-25 10:35:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM HST Wed Jun 24 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 250835 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Three-E Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032020 1100 PM HST Wed Jun 24 2020 Thunderstorm activity has waned significantly near the center of the small cyclone, and is now restricted to the southwestern quadrant due to the ingestion of a large slug of dry mid-level air from the north and northeast. The intensity has been held at 30 kt, and is based on continuity with the previous advisory, and satellite current intensity estimates of T2.0/30 kt and T1.5/25 from TAFB and SAB, respectively. The small depression has been moving westward or 275/07 kt. The cyclone is forecast by the global models to move generally west-northwestward for the next 3 days along the southern periphery of a deep-layer ridge. Thereafter, a weakening and more shallow system is expected to turn toward the west and then west-southwest after moving into the Central Pacific basin. The new NHC track forecast is south of the previous advisory track, and lies close to a blend of the consensus models TVCE, GFEX, and HCCA. Despite moving through a regime of very light wind shear and over SSTs of at least 27 deg C for the next 2-3 days, the depression will skirt along the southwestern edge of an expansive region of cool, dry air located over the mid-Pacific. The statistical SHIPS and LGEM intensity models now show no intensification during the next 5 days, while the global and regional models show only very modest strengthening. The small size of the cyclone argues for at least some strengthening since only a small increase in convection can quickly spin up the low-level field. However, proximity to the aforementioned cool, stable air should prevent any significant intensification. By 72h and beyond, the unfavorable combination of increasing northwesterly vertical wind shear, marginal SSTS, and a drier air mass are expected to cause the tropical cyclone to degenerate into a remnant low over the Central Pacific hurricane basin. The new official intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous advisory, and closely follows the consensus models IVCN and HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 10.6N 135.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 10.9N 136.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 11.4N 137.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 26/1800Z 11.8N 138.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 27/0600Z 12.1N 139.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 27/1800Z 12.3N 140.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 28/0600Z 12.4N 142.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 29/0600Z 11.8N 146.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 30/0600Z 10.9N 151.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Three-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2020-06-25 10:35:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUN 25 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 250834 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032020 0900 UTC THU JUN 25 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 135.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 140W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Summary for Tropical Depression Three-E (EP3/EP032020)
2020-06-25 10:34:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION MOVING WESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 11:00 PM HST Wed Jun 24 the center of Three-E was located near 10.6, -135.4 with movement W at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Three-E Public Advisory Number 4
2020-06-25 10:34:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM HST Wed Jun 24 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 250834 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Three-E Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032020 1100 PM HST Wed Jun 24 2020 ...DEPRESSION MOVING WESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.6N 135.4W ABOUT 1455 MI...2340 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII ABOUT 1885 MI...3030 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three-E was located near latitude 10.6 North, longitude 135.4 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue this morning. A motion toward the west-northwest is forecast to begin by this afternoon and continue through Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and the depression could become a tropical storm tonight or on Friday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Three-E Forecast Advisory Number 4
2020-06-25 10:34:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUN 25 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 250834 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032020 0900 UTC THU JUN 25 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 135.4W AT 25/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 135.4W AT 25/0900Z AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 135.1W FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 10.9N 136.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 11.4N 137.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 11.8N 138.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 12.1N 139.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 12.3N 140.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 12.4N 142.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 11.8N 146.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 10.9N 151.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.6N 135.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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