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Tropical Depression Boris Forecast Discussion Number 11
2020-06-27 04:40:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM HST Fri Jun 26 2020 232 WTPZ43 KNHC 270240 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Boris Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032020 500 PM HST Fri Jun 26 2020 There was a brief burst of deep convection over the estimated center of Boris but, overall, the system is not very well organized. The cloud pattern is elongated from southwest to northeast which is indicative of significant shear over the cyclone. The current intensity estimate remains 30 kt in agreement with a Dvorak classification from TAFB. Boris will be moving through an environment of south-southwesterly shear associated with a large upper-level low and associated trough near and to the west of 140W. This shear, along with relatively dry mid-level air, should cause gradual weakening and Boris will likely degenerate into a remnant low over the weekend. The official intensity forecast is the same as the previous one, and similar to the latest DSHIPS and LGEM guidance. Boris appears to have turned back toward a west-northwesterly heading and the motion estimate is 290/6 kt. The cyclone is expected to turn westward within the next 12 to 24 hours in response to a mid-level ridge to its north. Thereafter, the weakening low should begin to move a little south of west while embedded in the low-level trade wind flow. The official track forecast is in reasonable agreement with the latest model consensus. Since Boris is about to cross 140W longitude, it will be moving into the Central Pacific Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, and this is the last NHC advisory on this system. Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center beginning at 11 PM HST, under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP1, WMO header WTPA31 PHFO, and on the web at http://hurricanes.gov/cphc. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 12.7N 139.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 12.8N 140.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 12.9N 141.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 12.7N 143.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 12.4N 145.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 29/1200Z 11.7N 147.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Tropical Depression Boris (EP3/EP032020)
2020-06-27 04:39:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...BORIS ABOUT TO ENTER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN... As of 5:00 PM HST Fri Jun 26 the center of Boris was located near 12.7, -139.9 with movement WNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Boris Public Advisory Number 11
2020-06-27 04:39:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM HST Fri Jun 26 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 270239 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Boris Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032020 500 PM HST Fri Jun 26 2020 ...BORIS ABOUT TO ENTER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN... SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.7N 139.9W ABOUT 1115 MI...1795 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII ABOUT 2090 MI...3360 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Boris was located near latitude 12.7 North, longitude 139.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the west is expected on Saturday, and a westward to slightly south of westward motion is expected through Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Boris is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low pressure area by Sunday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center beginning at 11 PM HST, under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP1, WMO header WTPA31 PHFO, and on the web at http://hurricanes.gov/cphc. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression Boris Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2020-06-27 04:39:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUN 27 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 270239 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BORIS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032020 0300 UTC SAT JUN 27 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BORIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 139.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Depression Boris Forecast Advisory Number 11
2020-06-27 04:39:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUN 27 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 270239 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BORIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032020 0300 UTC SAT JUN 27 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 139.9W AT 27/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 139.9W AT 27/0300Z AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 139.6W FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 12.8N 140.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 12.9N 141.9W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 12.7N 143.6W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 12.4N 145.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 11.7N 147.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N 139.9W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER BEGINNING AT 0900 UTC...UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCMCP1...WMO HEADER WTPA21 PHFO. $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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