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Tropical Depression Three-E Graphics
2020-06-25 04:36:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 25 Jun 2020 02:36:26 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 25 Jun 2020 03:24:38 GMT
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Tropical Depression Three-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-06-25 04:35:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM HST Wed Jun 24 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 250234 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Three-E Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032020 500 PM HST Wed Jun 24 2020 There has been little change in the organization of the depression since the previous advisory. Deep convection that was located over the southern portion of the circulation waned during the early afternoon, but a new convective burst has developed within the past couple of hours to the south of the exposed low-level center. The intensity has been held at 30 kt, and is based on the earlier ASCAT data and the most recent Dvorak CI numbers from TAFB and SAB. Although the depression is moving over warm waters and within an area of low wind shear, water vapor imagery indicates that mid-level dry air is located near and just north of the cyclone which is likely the cause of the lack of convection over the northern portion of the circulation. As a result, only modest strengthening is anticipated over the next 24 to 36 hours. After that time, dry air and gradually decreasing SSTs along the forecast track are likely to cause weakening. The latest intensity guidance is slightly lower than the previous cycle, and the NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted accordingly. The new official intensity forecast is in best agreement with the latest HFIP corrected consensus aid. The depression has been moving more westward than expected, with an initial motion estimate of 285/8 kt. A cut-off low well to the north-northwest of the depression is expected to weaken the deep-layer ridge that is currently steering the cyclone. This should cause the depression to turn northwestward on Thursday, with this motion continuing over the next couple of days. By 60-72 h, the weakening tropical cyclone should turn back toward the west as it is steered by the low-level flow. Later in the period, the remnant low is forecast to turn west-southwestward within the trade wind flow over the central Pacific. The latest track model envelope has shifted somewhat southward, which has required a southward adjustment to the official forecast. The new NHC forecast lies between the previous advisory and the latest consensus aids, along the northern portion of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 10.6N 134.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 10.9N 135.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 11.4N 136.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 12.1N 137.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 27/0000Z 12.5N 138.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 27/1200Z 12.7N 139.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 28/0000Z 12.8N 141.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 29/0000Z 12.5N 145.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 30/0000Z 11.5N 149.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Depression Three-E (EP3/EP032020)
2020-06-25 04:34:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR THURSDAY... As of 5:00 PM HST Wed Jun 24 the center of Three-E was located near 10.6, -134.7 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Three-E Public Advisory Number 3
2020-06-25 04:34:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM HST Wed Jun 24 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 250234 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Three-E Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032020 500 PM HST Wed Jun 24 2020 ...DEPRESSION CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.6N 134.7W ABOUT 1495 MI...2405 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII ABOUT 1840 MI...2965 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three-E was located near latitude 10.6 North, longitude 134.7 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A west-northwest to northwest motion is expected during the next two to three days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight or on Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Three-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2020-06-25 04:34:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU JUN 25 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 250234 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032020 0300 UTC THU JUN 25 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 134.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 135W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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