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Tropical Depression Four-E Public Advisory Number 2
2020-06-30 10:34:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Jun 30 2020 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 300834 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Four-E Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042020 300 AM MDT Tue Jun 30 2020 ...DEPRESSION FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.6N 113.2W ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 215 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four-E was located near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 113.2 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow meandering motion is anticipated for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. The system is forecast to become a remnant low later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Four-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2020-06-30 10:34:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUN 30 2020 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 300834 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042020 0900 UTC TUE JUN 30 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 115W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Depression Four-E Forecast Advisory Number 2
2020-06-30 10:33:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUN 30 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 300833 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042020 0900 UTC TUE JUN 30 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 113.2W AT 30/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 215 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 113.2W AT 30/0900Z AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 112.9W FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 20.9N 113.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 21.0N 113.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 21.2N 113.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 21.6N 114.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 113.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Depression Four-E Graphics
2020-06-30 04:34:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 30 Jun 2020 02:34:01 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 30 Jun 2020 02:34:01 GMT
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Tropical Depression Four-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2020-06-30 04:32:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Mon Jun 29 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 300232 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Four-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042020 900 PM MDT Mon Jun 29 2020 The circulation associated with the area of low pressure located southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has become better defined over the past 24 hours, and the system has maintained convection for much of the past 12 hours. Although the convection has not been particularly well organized at times today, a new burst of convection developed just northeast of the low-level center late this afternoon and has been persistent over the past several hours. Based on these observations and Dvorak T-number of 1.5 from TAFB and 2.0 from SAB, the system is being designated as a 30-kt tropical depression. The system is expected to be a short- lived tropical cyclone as it will be moving into an area of increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear and over SSTs of around 24 degrees Celsius by Tuesday morning. As a result, the depression is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low on Tuesday. The NHC wind speed prediction follows the trend of the intensity guidance and also calls for the remnant low to dissipate in 2 to 3 days. The depression is moving slowly northwestward around the western portion of a mid-level ridge that extends westward over central Mexico. The cyclone should continue moving on the same general heading with some reduction in forward speed as it weakens and is steered by the weaker low-level flow. The NHC track forecast is near the middle of the guidance envelope in best agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 20.5N 112.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 21.1N 113.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 01/0000Z 21.4N 113.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 01/1200Z 21.6N 113.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 02/0000Z 21.8N 113.8W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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