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Summary for Tropical Depression Fifteen-E (EP5/EP152017)
2017-09-14 10:33:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED... As of 2:00 AM PDT Thu Sep 14 the center of Fifteen-E was located near 15.3, -122.2 with movement WNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Public Advisory Number 11
2017-09-14 10:33:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Thu Sep 14 2017 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 140833 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017 200 AM PDT Thu Sep 14 2017 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.3N 122.2W ABOUT 960 MI...1540 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen-E was located near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 122.2 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), but a slow westward motion is expected during the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. No change in strength is expected today, but the depression still has a chance to become a tropical storm in a couple of days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Graphics
2017-09-14 04:39:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 14 Sep 2017 02:39:51 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 14 Sep 2017 03:32:03 GMT
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 10
2017-09-14 04:33:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Wed Sep 13 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 140233 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017 800 PM PDT Wed Sep 13 2017 During the afternoon hours, the mid-level center of the depression became completely removed from the now exposed low-level center. A small tight swirl embedded within a broader, elongated, low-level circulation is still evident, but deep convection is limited to a band displaced about 60 n mi to the west of the center. The initial intensity has been held at 30 kt, based on earlier ASCAT data. Given the poor convective structure of the depression, little change in intensity is expected for the next day or so. After that time, the GFS and ECMWF both forecast that the upper-level wind pattern will become more favorable for intensification. Once that happens, most of the intensity guidance forecasts that the cyclone will begin to steadily strengthen, especially after about 72 h. My forecast is a little higher than the previous NHC forecast at 96 h and 120 h, and is very close to IVCN. The depression has been nearly stationary for the past 6 hours. The initial motion estimate assumes at least some movement, and is a rather uncertain 270/02 kt. The global models agree that the cyclone will remain trapped in weak steering flow throughout the forecast period, but vary greatly on how much it will move. A complicating factor is that the GFS suggests that the low-level center may reform underneath the mid-level center to the south. My forecast assumes that the current center of circulation will persist, but a larger change may be required if such a reformation occurs. The new official track forecast is slower than the previous one for the first 36 h, but is close after that, and still shows little movement throughout the forecast period. The track forecast is based heavily on the ECMWF model, especially beyond day 2. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 15.1N 121.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 15.2N 122.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 15.4N 123.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 15.5N 124.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 15.3N 124.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 17/0000Z 15.5N 125.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 18/0000Z 16.0N 125.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 19/0000Z 16.5N 125.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Summary for Tropical Depression Fifteen-E (EP5/EP152017)
2017-09-14 04:32:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRAWLING WESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 8:00 PM PDT Wed Sep 13 the center of Fifteen-E was located near 15.1, -121.3 with movement W at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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