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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Graphics
2017-09-14 16:39:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 14 Sep 2017 14:39:27 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 14 Sep 2017 14:39:27 GMT
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 12
2017-09-14 16:34:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Sep 14 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 141434 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017 800 AM PDT Thu Sep 14 2017 The depression is still poorly organized, as about 15 kt of easterly shear continues to separate the low- and mid-level circulation centers. The initial intensity remains 30 kt given that the cloud pattern has not changed much since the previous advisory. The SHIPS model shows the shear relaxing by 24 hours, and with the cyclone over 27-28C water, some slow strengthening is predicted. The cyclone begins to move into a drier and more stable airmass by days 4 and 5, with the shear possibly increasing again, so some weakening is expected by day 5. The initial motion estimate is a rather uncertain 280/04 since there haven't been any recent microwave passes. The depression is currently situated south of a narrow mid-level ridge. This feature weakens with time, leaving the cyclone is a region of weak steering currents, with most of the guidance favoring some slow poleward motion late in the period. The new NHC track forecast is close to the latest HFIP consensus aid HCCA and is of low confidence. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 15.4N 122.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 15.6N 123.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 15.7N 124.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 15.6N 124.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 15.4N 125.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 17/1200Z 15.6N 125.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 18/1200Z 16.1N 125.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 19/1200Z 16.8N 125.7W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Summary for Tropical Depression Fifteen-E (EP5/EP152017)
2017-09-14 16:32:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION NOT EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO... As of 8:00 AM PDT Thu Sep 14 the center of Fifteen-E was located near 15.4, -122.8 with movement W at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Public Advisory Number 12
2017-09-14 16:32:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Sep 14 2017 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 141432 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017 800 AM PDT Thu Sep 14 2017 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION NOT EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.4N 122.8W ABOUT 985 MI...1590 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen-E was located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 122.8 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow westward to west-northwestward motion is expected through early Friday, followed by turn toward the west-southwest Friday night and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. No change in strength is expected through tonight, but the depression could become a tropical storm on Friday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2017-09-14 16:32:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 14 2017 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 141432 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152017 1500 UTC THU SEP 14 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 15N 125W 34 1 8( 9) 17(26) 11(37) 11(48) 3(51) 1(52) 15N 125W 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 6(14) 1(15) 1(16) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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