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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 12
2017-09-14 16:32:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 14 2017 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 141432 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152017 1500 UTC THU SEP 14 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 122.8W AT 14/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 122.8W AT 14/1500Z AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 122.6W FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 15.6N 123.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 15.7N 124.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.6N 124.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 15.4N 125.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 15.6N 125.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 16.1N 125.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 16.8N 125.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 122.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Graphics
2017-09-14 10:39:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 14 Sep 2017 08:39:50 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 14 Sep 2017 08:39:51 GMT
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 11
2017-09-14 10:34:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Thu Sep 14 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 140834 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017 200 AM PDT Thu Sep 14 2017 The depression continues to be disorganized with the low- and middle-level centers well separated due to shear. This can be clearly observed on conventional imagery as well as microwave data. Given the lack of organization, the initial intensity is kept at 30 kt, and no change in strength is anticipated during the next 24 hours or so. After that time, the shear is forecast to decrease, and the depression could become better organized and reach tropical storm status. This is the scenario provided by most of the guidance. My best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west-northwest or 285 degrees at 4 kt. The depression continues to be trapped within weak steering flow, and only a small westward drift is forecast. In fact, by the end of the forecast period, the steering currents are expected to collapse, and the cyclone will probably begin to meander. The NHC forecast follows most of the guidance up to 4 days. After that time, models diverge considerably and the forecast is highly uncertain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 15.3N 122.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 15.5N 123.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 15.5N 124.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 15.5N 124.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 16/0600Z 15.5N 125.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 17/0600Z 15.5N 125.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 18/0600Z 15.5N 125.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 19/0600Z 16.5N 125.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2017-09-14 10:33:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 14 2017 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 140833 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152017 0900 UTC THU SEP 14 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 10N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 15N 125W 34 1 7( 8) 17(25) 11(36) 7(43) 30(73) 1(74) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 3(10) 17(27) X(27) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 5( 9) 3(12) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) 1(11) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 11
2017-09-14 10:33:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 14 2017 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 140833 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152017 0900 UTC THU SEP 14 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 122.2W AT 14/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 122.2W AT 14/0900Z AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 122.0W FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 15.5N 123.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 15.5N 124.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 15.5N 124.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.5N 125.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 15.5N 125.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 15.5N 125.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 16.5N 125.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 122.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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