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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Public Advisory Number 10
2017-09-14 04:32:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Wed Sep 13 2017 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 140232 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017 800 PM PDT Wed Sep 13 2017 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRAWLING WESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.1N 121.3W ABOUT 920 MI...1475 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen-E was located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 121.3 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 2 mph (4 km/h), and a slow westward motion is expected for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Very gradual strengthening is forecast for the next two days, and the depression could become a tropical storm on Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2017-09-14 04:32:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 14 2017 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 140232 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152017 0300 UTC THU SEP 14 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) 15N 125W 34 X 3( 3) 12(15) 19(34) 10(44) 9(53) 2(55) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11) 4(15) 1(16) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 6( 9) 3(12) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 10
2017-09-14 04:32:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 14 2017 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 140231 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152017 0300 UTC THU SEP 14 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 121.3W AT 14/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 121.3W AT 14/0300Z AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 121.2W FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 15.2N 122.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 15.4N 123.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 15.5N 124.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.3N 124.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 15.5N 125.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 16.0N 125.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 16.5N 125.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 121.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Graphics
2017-09-13 22:43:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 13 Sep 2017 20:43:22 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 13 Sep 2017 20:43:22 GMT
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 9
2017-09-13 22:34:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Sep 13 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 132033 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017 200 PM PDT Wed Sep 13 2017 The cloud pattern is still disorganized and the circulation appears to be somewhat elongated. Most of the deep convection is located to the southwest of the center due to some moderate northeasterly shear. Dvorak T-numbers have not changed and consequently, the initial intensity is kept at 30 kt. There are no obvious reasons why the cyclone will not intensify a little. The shear is forecast to decrease in a couple of days and the ocean is warm. On this basis, little change is anticipated during the next 12 hours or so and some slight strengthening is forecast thereafter, and the depression is still expected to become a tropical storm. The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west or 275 degrees at 6 kt. The depression is embedded within light easterly flow south of a subtropical ridge. Global models indicate that the steering currents will weaken even more, and this flow will only produce a very slow westward motion through the next 3 days. After that time, the cyclone will probably begin to meander as the steering flow collapses completely. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 15.1N 121.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 15.2N 122.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 15.4N 123.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 15.5N 124.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 15.5N 125.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 16/1800Z 15.5N 125.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 17/1800Z 15.5N 125.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 18/1800Z 16.0N 125.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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