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Hurricane Larry Public Advisory Number 33
2021-09-08 22:46:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Sep 08 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 082046 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 500 PM AST Wed Sep 08 2021 ...LARRY REMAINS LARGE AND POWERFUL... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.9N 59.2W ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located near latitude 28.9 North, longitude 59.2 West. Larry is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and a turn toward the north-northwest and north with an increase in forward speed is forecast on Thursday, with a faster northeastward motion expected by Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Larry should pass east of Bermuda on Thursday, and move near or over southeastern Newfoundland late Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, but Larry is expected to remain a hurricane during that time. Larry is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb (28.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning tonight or early Thursday. SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Leeward Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas through midweek, and impact Bermuda through the end of the week. Significant swells from Larry will continue affecting the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Outer rain bands from Hurricane Larry may periodically impact Bermuda tonight into Thursday. Significant rainfall totals are currently not expected, however briefly heavy rain rates within these bands may result in an inch or two of rain through Thursday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Larry Forecast Advisory Number 33
2021-09-08 22:45:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 08 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 082045 TCMAT2 HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 2100 UTC WED SEP 08 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS IN SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 59.2W AT 08/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT.......100NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT.......190NE 210SE 150SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 300SE 270SW 330NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 59.2W AT 08/2100Z AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 58.8W FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 30.6N 60.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...190NE 210SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 33.3N 61.8W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...190NE 210SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 37.0N 61.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...190NE 200SE 150SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 42.0N 58.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...190NE 200SE 160SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 48.0N 52.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 54.0N 45.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 60NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 190SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 62.0N 37.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z...MERGED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.9N 59.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 09/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm Olaf Public Advisory Number 4A
2021-09-08 19:53:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1200 PM MDT Wed Sep 08 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 081753 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Olaf Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 1200 PM MDT Wed Sep 08 2021 ...OLAF STRENGTHENS A LITTLE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.1N 107.5W ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Baja California Sur Mexico from Los Barriles to Santa Fe A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings may be required later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Olaf was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 107.5 West. Olaf is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). This general motion along with an increase in forward speed are expected through Friday. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast by Friday night, followed by a turn toward the west on Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Olaf will move just to the southwest of southern Baja California Sur on Thursday and Friday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Olaf could be near hurricane strength by late Thursday. The storm is expected to begin weakening on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (115 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Olaf can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Baja California Sur by late Thursday or Thursday night. RAINFALL: Olaf is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches with maximum amounts of 5 inches across the southern portions of Baja California Sur Thursday through Friday. This rainfall may trigger flash flooding and mudslides. SURF: Olaf is expected to generate swells that will affect portions of the coasts of Baja California Sur and Sinaloa by Thursday, spreading northward along the west coast of Baja California Sur through Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Hurricane Larry Public Advisory Number 32A
2021-09-08 19:40:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM AST Wed Sep 08 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 081740 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Larry Intermediate Advisory Number 32A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 200 PM AST Wed Sep 08 2021 ...LARRY GETTING CLOSER TO BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.3N 58.9W ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located near latitude 28.3 North, longitude 58.9 West. Larry is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through today. A turn toward the north-northwest and north with an increase in forward speed is forecast on Thursday, with a faster northeastward motion expected by Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Larry should pass east of Bermuda on Thursday, and move near or over southeastern Newfoundland late Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next few days, but Larry is expected to remain a hurricane during that time. Larry is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb (28.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning tonight or early Thursday. SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Leeward Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas through midweek, and impact Bermuda through the end of the week. Significant swells from Larry will begin reaching the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada today and continue affecting these shores through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Outer rain bands from Hurricane Larry may periodically impact Bermuda tonight into Thursday. Significant rainfall totals are currently not expected, however briefly heavy rain rates within these bands may result in an inch or two of rain through Thursday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Larry Forecast Discussion Number 32
2021-09-08 16:53:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 08 2021 567 WTNT42 KNHC 081453 TCDAT2 Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 08 2021 Larry's eye has been only faintly apparent on recent satellite imagery, but the hurricane is still maintaining a fair amount of deep convection near/around the center. An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated Larry a little while ago and observations found that the central pressure has risen only slightly since yesterday, with peak flight level winds of 118 kt in the northeastern quadrant. However, the highest SFMR-observed surface winds were only 75 kt, indicating that the strong winds aloft are not very effectively being transported to the surface. Given this, along with the slightly-degraded appearance of the system, the current intensity is reduced to 95 kt, which is just a bit above the latest subjective and objective Dvorak estimates. The hurricane is moving northwestward at a slightly faster clip, or 320/11 kt. Over the next 36 to 48 hours, Larry is expected to move around the western periphery of a subtropical high pressure area and pass to the east of Bermuda. Thereafter, the cyclone should accelerate northeastward ahead of a deep-layer trough moving through the northeastern United States and become embedded within the mid-latitude southwesterly flow. This will take Larry near or over southeastern Newfoundland in 60-66 hours and then over the far North Atlantic. The official forecast track has not changed significantly from those in the previous few advisories, and remains close to the dynamical model consensus, TVCA. Larry should remain in an environment of low vertical shear and warm surface waters for the next 36-48 hours. However, the oceanic heat content beneath the hurricane should be gradually decreasing during the next few days. Only slow weakening is forecast, similar to the latest NOAA corrected consensus, HCCA, prediction. In about 72 hours, the global models indicate that Larry will become embedded within a frontal zone, so the NHC forecast shows it as an extratropical cyclone by that time. In 5 days or less, the system is expected to merge with another large cyclone at high latitudes. Key Messages: 1. Large swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Leeward Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas and Bermuda. Significant swells will begin to reach the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada later today and continue affecting these shores through the end of the week. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and beachgoers and other interests along these coasts are urged to follow the guidance of lifeguards and local officials this week. 2. The center of Larry is forecast to pass east of Bermuda on Thursday, but given Larry's large size, tropical storm conditions are expected there there Thursday, along with a risk of coastal flooding. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Bermuda, and interests there should closely monitor the latest forecast updates. 3. Larry is forecast to move near or over portions of southeastern Newfoundland late Friday and Friday night as it undergoes transition to a hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone. There is an increasing risk of impacts from high winds, rainfall, and storm surge in portions of Newfoundland, and interests there should monitor updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 27.7N 58.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 29.1N 59.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 31.6N 61.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 34.7N 61.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 10/1200Z 39.1N 60.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 11/0000Z 44.4N 55.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 11/1200Z 50.5N 49.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 12/1200Z 61.0N 37.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 13/1200Z...MERGED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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