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Hurricane Larry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 31
2021-09-08 10:49:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 08 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 080849 PWSAT2 HURRICANE LARRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 0900 UTC WED SEP 08 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LARRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 39(39) 17(56) X(56) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 10(19) X(19) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 72(72) 4(76) X(76) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 40(40) 4(44) X(44) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 1(17) X(17) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 44(44) 1(45) X(45) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) X(17) X(17) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 1(19) X(19) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 34(34) X(34) X(34) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BERMUDA 34 X 5( 5) 23(28) 3(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2021-09-08 10:49:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Sep 08 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 080849 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 300 AM MDT Wed Sep 08 2021 The circulation of the depression has continued to become better defined, and there has been a substantial increase in deep convection within bands to the north and northeast of the center. However, the inner core remains slightly displaced from this activity, and a combination of subjective and objective intensity estimates supports maintaining the cyclone as a 30-kt depression for this advisory. The system has either been meandering or its center re-formed yesterday, and the long-term motion is a drift toward the north-northwest (335 degrees) at about 3 kt. This motion is likely due to the depression being caught within weak steering currents between a mid-level low west of the Baja California peninsula and troughing extending across Mexico to the Gulf of Mexico. A strong mid-tropospheric high over the western United States should gradually cause the system to move faster toward the northwest during the next 2 to 3 days, bringing it very close to Baja California Sur in about 48 hours. Of the track models, the GFS and COAMPS-TC models are the solutions which bring the cyclone's center closest to Baja California Sur, while the ECMWF and UKMET models have the farther-offshore tracks. The new NHC track forecast splits the difference among these solutions and is a little east of the previous forecast during the first 36 hours to account for recent short-term motions. After 36 hours, it falls more or less in line with the previous prediction and is very close to the consensus aids, HWRF, and HMON. There are counteracting factors at play regarding the depression's future intensity. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to be low, the GFS suggests that moderate to strong mid-level shear could develop below the outflow level during the next 24-48 hours. Sea surface temperatures will be plenty warm for strengthening during the next 48 hours, yet upper-level divergence is not expected to be ideal. Since the system's circulation appears to be improving, steady strengthening is forecast during the first 48 hours, and the depression could become a short-lived hurricane while it passes the Baja California peninsula. This forecast is near the upper end of the guidance envelope, close to the GFS, HWRF, COAMPS-TC, and HCCA solutions. The cyclone will be moving over colder waters in 2-3 days, which should cause quick weakening and a degeneration to remnant low status by day 4. Key Messages: 1. Tropical Depression Fifteen-E is expected to strengthen to a tropical storm later today, and it could become a short-lived hurricane while it passes just to the southwest of southern portions of Baja California Sur Thursday and Friday. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for southern portions of Baja California Sur, and interests there should continue to monitor the progress of the depression. 2. Heavy rains associated with Tropical Depression Fifteen-E are possible across southern portions of Baja California Sur Thursday through Friday. This will pose a threat of flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 18.5N 107.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 19.1N 107.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 20.0N 108.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 21.1N 109.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 22.3N 111.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 10/1800Z 23.3N 112.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 11/0600Z 23.9N 114.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 12/0600Z 24.1N 117.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/0600Z 23.6N 119.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2021-09-08 10:49:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 08 2021 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 080849 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152021 0900 UTC WED SEP 08 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 2( 2) 20(22) 26(48) 1(49) X(49) X(49) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 2( 2) 15(17) 22(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 4( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) MAZATLAN 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MANZANILLO 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 1 16(17) 32(49) 3(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) 11(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 3( 3) 7(10) 2(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 2(17) 1(18) 25N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 3
2021-09-08 10:49:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 08 2021 410 WTPZ25 KNHC 080848 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152021 0900 UTC WED SEP 08 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR TO SANTA FE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO FROM LOS BARRILES TO SANTA FE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 107.1W AT 08/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 107.1W AT 08/0900Z AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 107.0W FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 19.1N 107.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 20.0N 108.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 21.1N 109.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 22.3N 111.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 23.3N 112.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 23.9N 114.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 24.1N 117.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 23.6N 119.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 107.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 08/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Hurricane Larry Public Advisory Number 31
2021-09-08 10:49:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 08 2021 411 WTNT32 KNHC 080848 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 500 AM AST Wed Sep 08 2021 ...LARGE LARRY CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... ...DANGEROUS SWELLS TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BEACHES THIS WEEK... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.5N 57.3W ABOUT 605 MI...970 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 hours. Interests in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the large eye of Hurricane Larry was located near latitude 26.5 North, longitude 57.3 West. Larry is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through today. A turn toward the north-northwest and north with an increase in forward speed is forecast on Thursday. A faster northeastward motion is expected by Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Larry should pass east of Bermuda on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Larry is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next several days, but Larry is expected to remain a hurricane during that time. Larry is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb (28.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning tonight or early Thursday. SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Leeward Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas through midweek, and impact Bermuda through the end of the week. Significant swells from Larry will begin reaching the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada today and continue affecting these shores through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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