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Hurricane Larry Forecast Discussion Number 30
2021-09-08 04:43:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 07 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 080243 TCDAT2 Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 07 2021 Larry's eye has become a little better defined since the previous advisory, and the eyewall convective cloud tops have cooled, with a nearly solid ring of -65C to -70C now surrounding the eye. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the central pressure has risen slightly to 966-968 mb and that peak 700-mb flight-level winds measured were 106 kt in the northeast quadrant. These data would suggest that the intensity has decreased a little to 95-96 kt. However, the peak flight-level wind of 106 kt was measured in the wake of a strong eyewall convective burst, suggesting that stronger winds could have been present in that convection. Also, if the surrounding eyewall convective ring closes off during the nocturnal convective maximum period in another six hours, then Dvorak intensity estimates would increase from the current T5.0/90 kt to T5.5/102 kt. Thus, Larry's intensity has been maintained at 100 kt for this advisory in order to avoid possible intensity vacillations. The initial motion estimate is 325/10 kt, based on reconnaissance aircraft fixes over the past 12 hours. There remains no significant change to the track forecast or reasoning over the past 48 hours. The latest NHC model guidance remains in strong agreement on Larry continuing to move northwestward and then northward around the western periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge during the next 48 hours or so. After passing east of Bermuda by early day 3, the hurricane is forecast to accelerate northeastward and move into the mid-latitude westerlies ahead of a large, eastward-moving trough that is currently approaching the northeastern United States and Atlantic Canada. By day 5, Larry is expected to move across the far north Atlantic. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies along the eastern edge of the tightly packed simple- and corrected-consensus track models. Larry's upper-level outflow pattern remains impressive, and has even expanded and accelerated on the east side owing to a southward-digging upper-level trough, which has enhanced the outflow in that part of the hurricane. The vertical wind shear affecting Larry is expected to remain low for the next 24 hours or so while the hurricane passes over even warmer sea-surface temperatures (SST) approaching 29.7 deg C, even though the oceanic heat content will be decreasing. However, entrainment of dry mid-level air along with eye fluctuations are expected to offset the warmer SSTs. Thus, a slow but steady decrease in intensity through 48-60 hours is expected. Late in the forecast period, colder waters and increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear exceeding 30 kt should induce a faster rate of weakening. By 96-120 hours, the global models also indicate Larry will be merging with a frontal zone. Therefore, the new intensity forecast continues to show extratropical transition during that time period. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and closely follows the simple- and corrected-consensus intensity models IVCN and NOAA-HCCA. Key Messages: 1. Large swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Lesser Antilles, portions of the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas through midweek. Significant swells should reach the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada by midweek and continue affecting these shores through the end of the week. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and beachgoers and other interests along these coasts are urged to follow the guidance of lifeguards and local officials this week. 2. The center of Larry is forecast to pass east of Bermuda on Thursday, but given Larry's large size, tropical storm conditions are possible there Thursday, along with a risk of heavy rainfall and coastal flooding. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Bermuda and interests there should closely monitor the latest forecast updates. 3. Larry is forecast to move near or over portions of southeastern Newfoundland late Friday and Friday night as it transitions to a hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone. There is a risk of impacts from high winds, rainfall, and storm surge in portions of Newfoundland, and interests there should monitor the progress of Larry and updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 25.8N 56.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 27.2N 58.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 29.2N 59.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 31.5N 61.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 34.6N 61.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 10/1200Z 39.1N 60.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 11/0000Z 44.5N 55.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 12/0000Z 56.2N 43.6W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 13/0000Z 62.8N 33.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Public Advisory Number 2
2021-09-08 04:43:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Tue Sep 07 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 080243 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 900 PM MDT Tue Sep 07 2021 ...CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION A LITTLE FARTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.2N 107.4W ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Meteorological Service of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the southern portion of Baja California Sur from Todos Santos to Los Barriles. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The southern portion of Baja California Sur from Todos Santos to Los Barriles A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen-E was located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 107.4 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn to the northwest is forecast to occur later tonight, and this motion along with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected through Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of the cyclone will approach the southern end of the Baja California Peninsula late Thursday and Thursday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected over the next couple of days, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight, and a hurricane on Thursday or Thursday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Baja California Sur by late Thursday or Thursday night. RAINFALL: Outer rainbands from the depression are likely to produce locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds along the coast of the Mexican states of Colima and Jalisco through tonight. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible over portions of Baja California Sur Thursday and Thursday night. SURF: The strengthening cyclone is expected to generate swells that will affect the portions of the southern Baja California peninsula by Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT. Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2021-09-08 04:43:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 08 2021 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 080243 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152021 0300 UTC WED SEP 08 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 33(40) 7(47) X(47) X(47) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) X(11) X(11) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 26(31) 7(38) X(38) X(38) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MAZATLAN 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MANZANILLO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 1 9(10) 37(47) 11(58) 1(59) X(59) X(59) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) 10(10) 9(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 2( 2) 9(11) 6(17) 2(19) X(19) X(19) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 8(24) 1(25) 25N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Hurricane Larry Forecast Advisory Number 30
2021-09-08 04:42:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 08 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 080242 TCMAT2 HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 0300 UTC WED SEP 08 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 56.8W AT 08/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 MB EYE DIAMETER 40 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT.......100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT.......160NE 160SE 120SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 270SE 240SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 56.8W AT 08/0300Z AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 56.5W FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 27.2N 58.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 29.2N 59.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 31.5N 61.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...180NE 170SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 34.6N 61.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 130SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 39.1N 60.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...190NE 180SE 130SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 44.5N 55.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 60NW. 34 KT...190NE 200SE 180SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 56.2N 43.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 62.8N 33.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.8N 56.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 08/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 2
2021-09-08 04:42:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 08 2021 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 080242 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152021 0300 UTC WED SEP 08 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM TODOS SANTOS TO LOS BARRILES. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM TODOS SANTOS TO LOS BARRILES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 107.4W AT 08/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 107.4W AT 08/0300Z AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 107.3W FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 18.6N 107.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 19.4N 108.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 20.4N 109.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 21.7N 110.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 22.8N 112.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 23.7N 113.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 24.5N 116.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 24.0N 119.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 107.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 08/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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