je.st
news
Tag: number
Hurricane Larry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 32
2021-09-08 16:52:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 08 2021 532 FONT12 KNHC 081452 PWSAT2 HURRICANE LARRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 1500 UTC WED SEP 08 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LARRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 58(58) 1(59) X(59) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) X(15) X(15) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 81(81) 1(82) X(82) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 52(52) X(52) X(52) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) X(22) X(22) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 47(47) 1(48) X(48) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) X(19) X(19) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) X(21) X(21) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 27(33) X(33) X(33) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BERMUDA 34 1 18(19) 7(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) BERMUDA 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Hurricane Larry Public Advisory Number 32
2021-09-08 16:52:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 08 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 081452 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 08 2021 ...LARRY STILL A LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE... ...CAUSING DANGEROUS SWELLS ON THE WESTERN ATLANTIC COAST THIS WEEK... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.7N 58.3W ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located near latitude 27.7 North, longitude 58.3 West. Larry is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through today. A turn toward the north-northwest and north with an increase in forward speed is forecast on Thursday, with a faster northeastward motion expected by Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Larry should pass east of Bermuda on Thursday, and move near or over southeastern Newfoundland late Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next few days, but Larry is expected to remain a hurricane during that time. Larry is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb (28.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning tonight or early Thursday. SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Leeward Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas through midweek, and impact Bermuda through the end of the week. Significant swells from Larry will begin reaching the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada today and continue affecting these shores through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Outer rain bands from Hurricane Larry may periodically impact Bermuda tonight into Thursday. Significant rainfall totals are currently not expected, however briefly heavy rain rates within these bands may result in an inch or two of rain through Thursday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
Tags: number
public
larry
advisory
Hurricane Larry Forecast Advisory Number 32
2021-09-08 16:51:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 08 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 081450 TCMAT2 HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 1500 UTC WED SEP 08 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS IN SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.7N 58.3W AT 08/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB EYE DIAMETER 50 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT.......100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT.......180NE 180SE 120SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 300SE 270SW 330NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.7N 58.3W AT 08/1500Z AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 57.8W FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 29.1N 59.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 31.6N 61.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 34.7N 61.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 130SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 39.1N 60.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 140SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 44.4N 55.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 50.5N 49.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 60NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 190SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 61.0N 37.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z...MERGED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.7N 58.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 08/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tags: number
larry
advisory
forecast
Tropical Storm Olaf Forecast Discussion Number 4
2021-09-08 16:40:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Sep 08 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 081440 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Olaf Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 900 AM MDT Wed Sep 08 2021 The depression has strengthened into Tropical Storm Olaf this morning. A well-defined curved band now wraps over 50 percent around the center of the cyclone, with cloud tops to -80 degrees C. The initial intensity has been raised to 35 kt for this advisory based on the latest TAFB Dvorak intensity estimate and the UW-CIMSS ADT. Olaf is forecast to remain over warm waters and in a moist environment for the next 36 hours or so. The only inhibiting factor to strengthening in the short term could be a slight increase in vertical wind shear beginning tonight. In a couple of days, the cyclone is forecast to begin moving over cooler waters and into a drier, much more stable atmospheric environment that favors rapid weakening. These unfavorable conditions should cause Olaf to degenerate into a remnant low this weekend. The latest NHC intensity forecast was decreased only slightly from the previous one, and is in good agreement with the IVCN intensity consensus. Although the NHC forecast no longer explicitly shows Olaf becoming a hurricane, this could still occur Thursday or Thursday night. The storm is now moving northwestward at 6 kt, to the southwest of a mid-level ridge building over northern Mexico. This northwestward motion should continue for a couple of days with a gradual increase in forward speed. By Friday night, Olaf is expected to turn west-northwestward as it weakens, and by Saturday a westward motion is forecast as the cyclone becomes shallow and steered by the surrounding low-level flow. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one, and lies near the various multi-model consensus tracks. It should be noted that the model solutions that depict a stronger cyclone favor a track slightly more to the north than the NHC forecast, closer to the southern Baja peninsula, while the weaker model solutions lie to the south of the NHC forecast track. Key Messages: 1. Olaf is forecast to strengthen to near hurricane intensity while it passes to the southwest of southern portions of Baja California Sur Thursday and Friday, and tropical storm conditions are possible in these areas. Interests there should continue to monitor the progress of Olaf. 2. Heavy rains associated with Olaf are possible across southern portions of Baja California Sur Thursday through Friday. This will pose a threat of flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 18.9N 107.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 19.6N 108.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 20.6N 109.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 21.7N 110.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 10/1200Z 22.9N 112.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 11/0000Z 23.5N 113.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 11/1200Z 23.8N 115.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 12/1200Z 23.7N 118.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/1200Z 23.0N 120.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm Olaf Forecast Advisory Number 4
2021-09-08 16:39:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 08 2021 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 081439 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM OLAF FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152021 1500 UTC WED SEP 08 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO FROM LOS BARRILES TO SANTA FE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 107.5W AT 08/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 107.5W AT 08/1500Z AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 107.3W FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 19.6N 108.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 20.6N 109.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 21.7N 110.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 22.9N 112.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 23.5N 113.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 23.8N 115.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 23.7N 118.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 23.0N 120.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 107.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 08/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Tags: number
storm
advisory
tropical
Sites : [135] [136] [137] [138] [139] [140] [141] [142] [143] [144] [145] [146] [147] [148] [149] [150] [151] [152] [153] [154] next »