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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Public Advisory Number 3
2021-09-08 10:49:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Sep 08 2021 412 WTPZ35 KNHC 080848 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 300 AM MDT Wed Sep 08 2021 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.5N 107.1W ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has extended the Tropical Storm Watch northward along the west coast of Baja California Sur to Santa Fe. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Baja California Sur Mexico from Los Barriles to Santa Fe A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings may be required later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen-E was located near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 107.1 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected later today, with an increasing forward speed through Friday. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast by Friday night. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will move just to the southwest of southern Baja California Sur on Thursday and Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today. It could then become a short-lived hurricane Thursday or Thursday night. Weakening is expected on Friday when the system moves over colder waters. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Fifteen-E can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Baja California Sur by late Thursday or Thursday night. RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches with maximum amounts of 5 inches across the southern portions of Baja California Sur Thursday through Friday. This rainfall may trigger flash flooding and mudslides. SURF: The strengthening cyclone is expected to generate swells that will affect portions of the coasts of Baja California Sur and Sinaloa by Thursday, spreading northward along the west coast of Baja California Sur through Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT. Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane Larry Forecast Advisory Number 31
2021-09-08 10:48:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 08 2021 859 WTNT22 KNHC 080848 TCMAT2 HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 0900 UTC WED SEP 08 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. INTERESTS IN SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 57.3W AT 08/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT.......100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT.......160NE 160SE 120SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 300SE 330SW 330NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 57.3W AT 08/0900Z AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 57.1W FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 28.0N 58.7W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 30.1N 60.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 32.9N 61.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...180NE 170SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 36.7N 61.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 140SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 41.7N 58.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 47.3N 52.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 60NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 190SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 58.8N 40.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 65.0N 33.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.5N 57.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 08/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane Larry Public Advisory Number 30A
2021-09-08 07:47:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM AST Wed Sep 08 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 080547 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Larry Intermediate Advisory Number 30A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 200 AM AST Wed Sep 08 2021 ...LARRY CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...DANGEROUS SWELLS TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BEACHES THIS WEEK... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.2N 57.1W ABOUT 625 MI...1010 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of the large eye of Hurricane Larry was located near latitude 26.2 North, longitude 57.1 West. Larry is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through today. A turn toward the north-northwest and north with an increase in forward speed is forecast on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Larry should pass east of Bermuda on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Larry is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Slow weakening is forecast during the next several days. Larry is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb (28.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning tonight or early Thursday. SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Leeward Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas through midweek, and impact Bermuda through the end of the week. Significant swells from Larry will begin reaching the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada today and continue affecting these shores through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Public Advisory Number 2A
2021-09-08 07:41:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1200 AM MDT Wed Sep 08 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 080541 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 1200 AM MDT Wed Sep 08 2021 ...DEPRESSION NOT MOVING MUCH OFF THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1200 AM MDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.3N 107.3W ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 355 MI...575 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The southern portion of Baja California Sur from Todos Santos to Los Barriles A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 AM MDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen-E was located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 107.3 West. The depression has been meandering for much of the last day or so, and the longer-term motion is toward the northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). A continued motion toward the northwest but with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected through Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of the cyclone will approach the southern end of the Baja California Peninsula late Thursday and Thursday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected over the next couple of days, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today, and a hurricane on Thursday or Thursday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Baja California Sur by late Thursday or Thursday night. RAINFALL: Outer rainbands from the depression are likely to produce locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds along the coast of the Mexican states of Colima and Jalisco this morning. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible over portions of Baja California Sur Thursday and Thursday night. SURF: The strengthening cyclone is expected to generate swells that will affect the portions of the southern Baja California peninsula by Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2021-09-08 04:43:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Tue Sep 07 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 080243 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 900 PM MDT Tue Sep 07 2021 Satellite imagery indicates that Tropical Depression Fifteen-E has changed little in organization during the past several hours. While the system is producing good convective banding in the eastern semicircle, the convection near the center is currently poorly organized, and there is no evidence that the inner core has consolidated. Thus, the initial intensity remains 30 kt based mainly on continuity from the previous advisory. A combination of conventional and 37 GHz microwave satellite imagery suggests that the center is farther east than previously thought, so the new initial position is about a half degree east of the previous advisory position. The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 300/5. A large mid-level anticyclone is located over the southwestern United States with a ridge extending southeastward across Mexico. The anticyclone should shift a little eastward during the next few days, with the ridge extending southward across Mexico. This evolution should steer the tropical cyclone generally northwestward for the next several days, followed by a more westward motion as the cyclone weakens over cooler water and is steered by low-level easterly flow. The track guidance is in good agreement with this scenario, and the new forecast track is near the consensus models. However, the more eastward initial position required an eastward shift to the forecast track. It should be noted that some erratic motion is possible until the cyclone develops a better-defined inner core. Conditions appear favorable for strengthening until the system reaches the 26-deg-C SST isotherm in 60-72 h, with the main restraining factor being the current lack of internal organization. The intensity forecast has only minor adjustments from the previous forecast and calls for the depression to become a tropical storm in about 12 h and a hurricane in about 48 h. Steady to rapid weakening is expected after 60-72 h due to the cooler water and dry air entrainment. The more easterly initial position and the new forecast track require a Tropical Storm Watch for portions of Baja California Sur at this time. Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 18.2N 107.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 18.6N 107.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 19.4N 108.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 20.4N 109.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 21.7N 110.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 10/1200Z 22.8N 112.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 11/0000Z 23.7N 113.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 12/0000Z 24.5N 116.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 13/0000Z 24.0N 119.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven
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