je.st
news
Tag: number
Tropical Storm Olaf Public Advisory Number 4
2021-09-08 16:39:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Sep 08 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 081439 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Olaf Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 900 AM MDT Wed Sep 08 2021 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM OLAF... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.9N 107.5W ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Baja California Sur Mexico from Los Barriles to Santa Fe A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings may be required later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Olaf was located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 107.5 West. Olaf is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). This general motion along with an increase in forward speed are expected through Friday. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast by Friday night, followed by a turn toward the west on Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Olaf will move just to the southwest of southern Baja California Sur on Thursday and Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Olaf could be near hurricane strength by late Thursday. The storm is expected to begin weakening on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Olaf can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Baja California Sur by late Thursday or Thursday night. RAINFALL: Olaf is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches with maximum amounts of 5 inches across the southern portions of Baja California Sur Thursday through Friday. This rainfall may trigger flash flooding and mudslides. SURF: Olaf is expected to generate swells that will affect portions of the coasts of Baja California Sur and Sinaloa by Thursday, spreading northward along the west coast of Baja California Sur through Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT. Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Tropical Storm Olaf Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2021-09-08 16:39:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 08 2021 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 081439 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM OLAF WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152021 1500 UTC WED SEP 08 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OLAF WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 1( 1) 23(24) 8(32) 1(33) X(33) X(33) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 1( 1) 15(16) 6(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAZATLAN 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 X 11(11) 12(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) 20N 110W 50 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 2(11) X(11) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Hurricane Larry Public Advisory Number 31A
2021-09-08 13:56:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM AST Wed Sep 08 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 081156 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Larry Intermediate Advisory Number 31A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 800 AM AST Wed Sep 08 2021 ...LARRY CAUSING DANGEROUS SWELLS ON THE WESTERN ATLANTIC COAST THIS WEEK... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.0N 57.7W ABOUT 560 MI...905 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Bermuda. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), Hurricane Larry was located near latitude 27.0 North, longitude 57.7 West. Larry is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through today. A turn toward the north-northwest and north with an increase in forward speed is forecast on Thursday. A faster northeastward motion is expected by Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Larry should pass east of Bermuda on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Larry is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next several days, but Larry is expected to remain a hurricane during that time. Larry is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 966 mb (28.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning tonight or early Thursday. SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Leeward Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas through midweek, and impact Bermuda through the end of the week. Significant swells from Larry will begin reaching the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada today and continue affecting these shores through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
Tags: number
public
larry
advisory
Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Public Advisory Number 3A
2021-09-08 13:56:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 600 AM MDT Wed Sep 08 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 081156 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Intermediate Advisory Number 3A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 600 AM MDT Wed Sep 08 2021 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION STILL FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.7N 107.3W ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...8 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Baja California Sur Mexico from Los Barriles to Santa Fe A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings may be required later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen-E was located near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 107.3 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (8 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected later today, with an increasing forward speed through Friday. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast by Friday night. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will move just to the southwest of southern Baja California Sur on Thursday and Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today. It could then become a short-lived hurricane Thursday or Thursday night. Weakening is expected on Friday when the system moves over colder waters. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Fifteen-E can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Baja California Sur by late Thursday or Thursday night. RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches with maximum amounts of 5 inches across the southern portions of Baja California Sur Thursday through Friday. This rainfall may trigger flash flooding and mudslides. SURF: The strengthening cyclone is expected to generate swells that will affect portions of the coasts of Baja California Sur and Sinaloa by Thursday, spreading northward along the west coast of Baja California Sur through Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
Tags: number
public
advisory
tropical
Hurricane Larry Forecast Discussion Number 31
2021-09-08 10:50:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 08 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 080850 TCDAT2 Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 500 AM AST Wed Sep 08 2021 Larry's overall satellite presentation has not changed appreciably overnight, however there has been some recent cooling of the cloud tops in the surrounding ring of convection. A fairly recent AMSR2 microwave overpass has revealed a fragmented inner eye with a band or ring of convection at a fairly large radius from the center. Subjective Dvorak Current Intensity (CI) numbers from TAFB and SAB are T5.0 (90 kt) while objective UW/CIMSS ADT T-numbers are around T5.8 (110 kt). A consensus of these estimates, and the latest SATCON estimate of 100 kt, is used as the initial intensity for this advisory. The next Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Larry this morning and should provide in situ data to help better ascertain the intensity and structure of the hurricane. Larry continues to move northwestward or 325/9 kt. The track forecast reasoning is once again unchanged from before. Larry is expected to move northwestward and then northward around the western portion of a deep-layer ridge during the next 36 to 48 hours, with the center of the hurricane passing east of Bermuda on Thursday. After that time, Larry should begin to accelerate northeastward ahead of a deep-layer trough that will be moving across the northeastern United States, and this will bring the cyclone near or over southeastern Newfoundland in about 72 hours. The track guidance continues to be in excellent agreement, and only slight modifications were made to the previous official forecast. The updated NHC track is near the various consensus aids and the latest GFS ensemble mean. The hurricane is forecast to remain within an area of low vertical wind shear for the next day or two, but the upper-ocean heat content will be gradually decreasing along the forecast path. This, along with some upwelling beneath the relatively slow-moving hurricane, is likely to result in gradual weakening over the next couple of days. After that time, increasing southwesterly shear and much colder SSTs along the forecast track should result in additional weakening. The global models indicate that Larry will merge with a frontal zone and complete its extratropical transition in a little more than 3 days. The NHC intensity forecast is once again similar to the previous advisory and is in best agreement with the IVCN consensus aid. Key Messages: 1. Large swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Leeward Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas today. Significant swells will begin to reach the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada later today and continue affecting these shores through the end of the week. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and beachgoers and other interests along these coasts are urged to follow the guidance of lifeguards and local officials this week. 2. The center of Larry is forecast to pass east of Bermuda on Thursday, but given Larry's large size, tropical storm conditions are possible there Thursday, along with a risk of heavy rainfall and coastal flooding. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Bermuda, and interests there should closely monitor the latest forecast updates. 3. Larry is forecast to move near or over portions of southeastern Newfoundland late Friday and Friday night as it transitions to a hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone. There is a risk of impacts from high winds, rainfall, and storm surge in portions of Newfoundland, and interests there should monitor the progress of Larry and updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 26.5N 57.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 28.0N 58.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 30.1N 60.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 32.9N 61.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 36.7N 61.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 10/1800Z 41.7N 58.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 11/0600Z 47.3N 52.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 12/0600Z 58.8N 40.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 13/0600Z 65.0N 33.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brown
Tags: number
discussion
larry
forecast
Sites : [136] [137] [138] [139] [140] [141] [142] [143] [144] [145] [146] [147] [148] [149] [150] [151] [152] [153] [154] [155] next »