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Tropical Depression Victor Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
2021-10-04 10:46:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON OCT 04 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 040846 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION VICTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202021 0900 UTC MON OCT 04 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION VICTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression Victor Forecast Advisory Number 20
2021-10-04 10:43:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON OCT 04 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 040843 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION VICTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202021 0900 UTC MON OCT 04 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 43.6W AT 04/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 43.6W AT 04/0900Z AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 43.1W FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.2N 45.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 43.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane Sam Forecast Discussion Number 47
2021-10-04 10:42:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Oct 04 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 040842 TCDAT3 Hurricane Sam Discussion Number 47 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 500 AM AST Mon Oct 04 2021 A 0255Z GPM microwave pass indicated that Sam had continued to go through an eyewall replacement cycle, consisting of a 20-nmi-wide inner eye and an 85-nmi-wide outer eye. The inner eye was rapidly eroding on the northwest side compared to microwave data from just a few hours earlier. Additionally, late-arriving ASCAT surface wind data from 0000-0100Z indicated that the inner-core wind field had contracted or weakened, while the outer wind field (34-kt radii) had continued to expand in all quadrants. Satellite intensity estimates have decreased to around 80 kt. However, the advisory intensity has been maintained at 90 kt based on the 10-kt increase in forward speed, which should offset any weakening of the tangential winds. Gradual weakening is expected now that Sam has passed north of the warm Gulf Stream and is moving over sub-25-deg-C sea-surface temperatures (SST), with much colder SSTs lying ahead of the hurricane. Vertical wind shear is forecast to increase to more than 30 kt by 18 h, which should cause further weakening. By 24 h and beyond, interaction with a strong upper-level trough/low should cause Sam to transition into a powerful extratropical cyclone by early Tuesday to the east of Newfoundland. This baroclinic interaction is expected to cause extratropical-Sam to maintain hurricane-force winds until early Wednesday. Slow weakening is forecast thereafter as the very large cyclone slowly spins down as an occluded low pressure system. No significant changes were made to the previous intensity forecast. Sam has continued to accelerate and is now moving at 045/26 kt. A northeastward motion along with continued acceleration is forecast through today as Sam moves into stronger southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough. The large cyclone is expected to remain the primary surface low center as it merges with the trough in a couple days. A gradual turn toward the north and northwest is expected on days 4 and 5 when extratropical-Sam moves around another high-latitude trough. The new NHC forecast track is essentially just an update of the previous advisory track, and lies close to the tightly packed consensus track models. Key Messages: 1. Swells generated by Sam will impact the northern Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the eastern United States and Atlantic Canada for the next couple of days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 40.8N 48.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 43.7N 45.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 47.8N 41.5W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 05/1800Z 50.1N 39.3W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 06/0600Z 51.0N 35.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 06/1800Z 52.8N 31.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 07/0600Z 56.0N 28.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 08/0600Z 60.6N 29.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 09/0600Z 61.5N 30.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Sam Wind Speed Probabilities Number 47
2021-10-04 10:42:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON OCT 04 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 040842 PWSAT3 HURRICANE SAM WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 47 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 0900 UTC MON OCT 04 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SAM WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS ...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 4 6(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Hurricane Sam Public Advisory Number 47
2021-10-04 10:41:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Oct 04 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 040841 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Sam Advisory Number 47 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 500 AM AST Mon Oct 04 2021 ...SAM NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM AND EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOON... ...FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY EARLY TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...40.8N 48.7W ABOUT 465 MI...745 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 30 MPH...48 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sam was located near latitude 40.8 North, longitude 48.7 West. Sam is moving toward the northeast near 30 mph (48 km/h). A northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. The cyclone is forecast to slow down over the far north Atlantic southwest of Iceland around midweek. Maximum sustained winds remain near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next few days, and Sam is expected to transition into a powerful post-tropical cyclone by early Tuesday. Sam is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb (28.26 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sam can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. SURF: Swells generated by Sam will impact the northern Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the eastern United States and Atlantic Canada for the next couple of days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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