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Hurricane Sam Public Advisory Number 48
2021-10-04 16:42:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Oct 04 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 041442 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Sam Advisory Number 48 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 1100 AM AST Mon Oct 04 2021 ...SAM MOVING QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...42.6N 45.7W ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM SE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 32 MPH...52 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sam was located near latitude 42.6 North, longitude 45.7 West. Sam is moving toward the northeast near 32 mph (52 km/h). A faster northeastward motion is expected through tonight. A slower east-northeastward motion is forecast to begin on Tuesday and continue through midweek. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next few days, and Sam is expected to transition into a powerful post-tropical cyclone over the north Atlantic tonight or early Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sam can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. SURF: Swells generated by Sam will impact the northern Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, portions of the Bahamas, and southeastern Newfoundland for the next day or so. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Remnants of Victor Forecast Advisory Number 21
2021-10-04 16:42:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 04 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 041442 TCMAT5 REMNANTS OF VICTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202021 1500 UTC MON OCT 04 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 45.2W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 45.2W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 44.5W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 45.2W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON VICTOR. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS OF VICTOR CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER REINHART
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Hurricane Sam Forecast Advisory Number 48
2021-10-04 16:41:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 04 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 041441 TCMAT3 HURRICANE SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 48 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 1500 UTC MON OCT 04 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.6N 45.7W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 28 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. 50 KT.......100NE 100SE 100SW 70NW. 34 KT.......220NE 240SE 240SW 220NW. 12 FT SEAS..350NE 390SE 580SW 330NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.6N 45.7W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 41.4N 47.1W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 46.5N 41.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. 50 KT...110NE 140SE 140SW 70NW. 34 KT...240NE 300SE 300SW 270NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 50.0N 40.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. 50 KT...110NE 180SE 180SW 70NW. 34 KT...270NE 420SE 420SW 330NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 50.3N 38.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 150SE 150SW 60NW. 34 KT...270NE 420SE 420SW 330NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 51.4N 33.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 120SE 120SW 0NW. 34 KT...240NE 330SE 330SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 54.3N 27.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...210NE 270SE 270SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 58.3N 24.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...360NE 240SE 210SW 450NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 61.0N 29.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 60.0N 29.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 42.6N 45.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Victor Forecast Discussion Number 20
2021-10-04 10:56:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Oct 04 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 040856 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Victor Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 500 AM AST Mon Oct 04 2021 Strong southerly vertical wind shear in excess of 25 kt along with entrainment of very dry mid-level air (less than 40 percent relative humidity) has continued to take its toll on Victor. Deep convection has been weakening during the past couple of hours and is now displaced more than 100 nmi north and northeast of the elongated low-level center. The shear is forecast by the global models to increase to more than 30 kt in the next 6-12 hours, while the surrounding environment becomes drier and more stable. As a result, the cyclone is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low later today and likely dissipate by Tuesday, if not sooner. Victor is moving west-northwestward or 300/12 kt, and this general motion is expected to continue through today based on the latest NHC model guidance. As a result, no significant changes were made to the previous track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 18.1N 43.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 19.2N 45.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Victor Public Advisory Number 20
2021-10-04 10:46:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Oct 04 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 040846 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Victor Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 500 AM AST Mon Oct 04 2021 ...VICTOR EXPECTED TO VANISH LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.1N 43.6W ABOUT 1300 MI...2095 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Victor was located near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 43.6 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continued through today. Maximum sustained winds have decreased near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Further weakening is forecast, and Victor is expected to become a remnant low later today and dissipate by Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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