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Hurricane Sam Forecast Advisory Number 47
2021-10-04 10:41:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON OCT 04 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 040841 TCMAT3 HURRICANE SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 47 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 0900 UTC MON OCT 04 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.8N 48.7W AT 04/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 26 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 957 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 60SE 50SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 90SE 100SW 70NW. 34 KT.......220NE 220SE 220SW 210NW. 12 FT SEAS..350NE 360SE 450SW 330NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.8N 48.7W AT 04/0900Z AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.9N 49.9W FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 43.7N 45.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 0NW. 50 KT... 90NE 110SE 100SW 80NW. 34 KT...220NE 230SE 270SW 220NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 47.8N 41.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 0NW. 50 KT... 90NE 120SE 100SW 50NW. 34 KT...240NE 280SE 310SW 230NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 50.1N 39.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 0NW. 50 KT... 80NE 140SE 90SW 80NW. 34 KT...280NE 350SE 400SW 290NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 51.0N 35.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 110SE 70SW 50NW. 34 KT...290NE 350SE 380SW 330NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 52.8N 31.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...210NE 290SE 310SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 56.0N 28.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...220NE 260SE 200SW 220NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 60.6N 29.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 61.5N 30.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.8N 48.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression Victor Forecast Discussion Number 19
2021-10-04 04:35:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Oct 03 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 040235 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Victor Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 1100 PM AST Sun Oct 03 2021 In its battle against dry air and shear, Victor is far from its namesake. The depression continues to produce only minimal deep convection to the north. Furthermore, an ASCAT overpass near 2219 UTC casts doubt on whether Victor still has a closed and well-defined circulation, showing generally light winds south of the suspect center. However, no visible imagery is currently available to confirm the state of Victor's surface center, so advisories will continue for now. ASCAT data showed winds a little above 25 kt to the northeast of Victor's center, so the initial intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory. Victor is moving northwestward at a slightly faster speed (305/13 kt). Based on the ASCAT data and recent ProxyVis imagery, the center of Victor was relocated about 40 n mi south of previous estimates, which has resulted in a southern shift in the forecast track. That said, Victor is not expected to persist for much longer. The hostile surrounding environment will likely cause Victor to become a remnant low or dissipate on Monday. Victor, or its remnants, should move generally northwestward or west-northwestward until dissipation occurs within a day or so. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 17.8N 43.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 18.8N 44.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Victor Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2021-10-04 04:34:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 04 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 040234 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION VICTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202021 0300 UTC MON OCT 04 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION VICTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY
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Hurricane Sam Forecast Discussion Number 46
2021-10-04 04:34:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Oct 03 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 040234 TCDAT3 Hurricane Sam Discussion Number 46 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 1100 PM AST Sun Oct 03 2021 Sam still had a surprise up its sleeve tonight, with its eye becoming warmer on satellite images along with a stronger eyewall. Microwave data from earlier today indicated that Sam has been undergoing a concentric eyewall cycle, and it appears that the inner eyewall has become better defined. Regardless, it is not every day you see a hurricane with that clear of an eye near 40N, and the intensity estimates the evening range from 90-100 kt. Given the concentric eyewalls, the initial wind speed is conservatively raised to 90 kt, but it could be higher. High-resolution NOAA OISST data indicate that Sam is moving near a warm eddy along the north wall of the Gulf Stream. This favorable factor, in addition to low shear, should keep Sam's weakening to a minimum in the near term. Later on, although the shear increases rapidly and SSTs fall quickly, Sam is expected to transition into a powerful extratropical cyclone late Monday or early Tuesday due to a mid-latitude trough interaction well east of Newfoundland. This should cause extratropical Sam to maintain hurricane-force winds until early Wednesday. A slow weakening is expected thereafter as it slowly spins down as an occluded low. No significant changes were made to the previous forecast. Sam is moving faster, now 050/17 kt. A northeastward motion and continued acceleration is forecast through Monday as the cyclone gets caught in southwesterly flow ahead of the mid-latitude trough. The tropical cyclone is expected to be the main surface low center as it merges with the trough in a couple days, hooking briefly to the left. Thereafter, the system should resume a northeastward motion and gradually turn northward and even westward at long range as it moves around another trough. Model guidance is close to the previous cycle, even with the loopy track, and the new NHC forecast is basically just an update of the last advisory. Key Messages: 1. Swells generated by Sam will impact the northern Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the eastern United States and Atlantic Canada for the next couple of days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 39.3N 51.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 41.6N 47.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 46.5N 42.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 50.4N 40.3W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 06/0000Z 50.8N 38.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 06/1200Z 51.6N 33.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 07/0000Z 54.5N 28.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 08/0000Z 61.0N 28.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 09/0000Z 61.5N 32.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression Victor Public Advisory Number 19
2021-10-04 04:34:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Oct 03 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 040234 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Victor Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 1100 PM AST Sun Oct 03 2021 ...VICTOR NO VICTOR IN ITS BATTLE AGAINST DRY AIR AND SHEAR... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 43.0W ABOUT 1260 MI...2030 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Victor was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 43.0 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). The system is forecast to move northwestward or west-northwestward at a slightly faster forward speed through Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast. Victor is expected to become a remnant low on Monday and will likely dissipate shortly thereafter. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky
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