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Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Advisory Number 3

2021-08-02 10:35:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 02 2021 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 020835 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102021 0900 UTC MON AUG 02 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 113.4W AT 02/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 113.4W AT 02/0900Z AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 113.0W FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 18.7N 114.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 19.6N 116.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 20.3N 117.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 20.5N 118.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 113.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Hurricane Hilda Forecast Discussion Number 10

2021-08-02 04:36:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT Sun Aug 01 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 020236 TCDEP3 Hurricane Hilda Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 800 PM PDT Sun Aug 01 2021 Hilda's satellite appearance is showing effects of easterly vertical wind shear this evening. Recent imagery shows a sharp edge to the upper-level outflow on the eastern side of the system. A 2130 UTC AMSR2 microwave pass reveals that the eyewall is no longer closed, as the inner core convection has been eroded on the eastern side of the circulation. Microwave data also indicate the vortex has become vertically tilted, with the mid-level center displaced about 10-15 n mi to the west-northwest of the low-level center. Thus, the initial intensity is lowered slightly to 70 kt for this advisory, in best agreement with the objective UW-CIMSS Dvorak estimates. Hilda is still moving west-northwestward at 285/8 kt, to the south of a ridge over the western U.S. and northern Mexico. A turn to the northwest is expected on Monday as the ridge weakens, likely in response to T.D. Ten-E located to the east-northeast of Hilda. A northwestward motion should continue through midweek before the ridge becomes reestablished and Hilda turns westward through the rest of the forecast period. There is greater track uncertainty later in the week due to possible interaction with another system that could redevelop from the remnants of T.D. Nine-E. The official NHC track forecast has been adjusted to the right of the previous one at 48 h and beyond based on the latest guidance, but it still lies slightly left of the multi-model consensus aids TVCE and HCCA. Environmental conditions are not expected to become any more favorable for strengthening during the next couple days, so Hilda's intensity has likely peaked. Moderate northeasterly shear is forecast to persist for the next 36-48 h, and the NHC forecast track brings Hilda north of the 26 deg C isotherm by the time these upper-level winds subside. Once over cooler waters, Hilda is forecast to quickly spin down and weaken to a tropical depression by 96 h. The NHC intensity forecast has again been lowered by 5-10 kt from the previous one at all forecast times, but it still lies slightly above the IVCN and HCCA consensus aids through 72 h. The system is forecast to degenerate to a remnant low by day 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 15.1N 121.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 15.5N 122.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 16.2N 123.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 17.3N 124.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 04/0000Z 18.4N 125.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 04/1200Z 19.5N 126.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 05/0000Z 20.3N 128.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 06/0000Z 21.0N 132.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 120H 07/0000Z 21.5N 136.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch

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Hurricane Hilda Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10

2021-08-02 04:35:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 02 2021 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 020235 PWSEP3 HURRICANE HILDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 0300 UTC MON AUG 02 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HILDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 3 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 125W 34 2 10(12) 6(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) 20N 125W 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 15(22) 7(29) X(29) X(29) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 5(12) X(12) $$ FORECASTER REINHART/PASCH

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Hurricane Hilda Forecast Advisory Number 10

2021-08-02 04:34:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 02 2021 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 020234 TCMEP3 HURRICANE HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 0300 UTC MON AUG 02 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 121.6W AT 02/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 121.6W AT 02/0300Z AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 121.3W FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 15.5N 122.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 16.2N 123.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 17.3N 124.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.4N 125.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.5N 126.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.3N 128.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 21.0N 132.3W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 21.5N 136.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 121.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/PASCH

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Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Discussion Number 2

2021-08-02 04:33:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 PM MDT Sun Aug 01 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 020233 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102021 900 PM MDT Sun Aug 01 2021 The center of the tropical cyclone is located near the northeastern edge of the main area of deep convection, as the system is experiencing northeasterly shear due to the flow on the south side of a large upper-level anticyclone. Enhanced infrared imagery shows that the convection is very deep over the western part of the circulation, but there is little evidence of banding features. The current intensity is held at 30 kt in agreement with a Dvorak estimate from SAB. Hopefully we will soon obtain some additional scatterometer data to provide an intensity estimate. The depression continues its west-northwestward track with a motion near 295/11 kt. This heading should continue for the next day or two while the cyclone moves along the southwestern side of a mid-level high pressure area. In 2-3 days, the track could become complicated by the interaction with the circulation of Hilda to the southwest, but the system will probably be quite weak by that time. The official forecast is close to the previous one but somewhat slower in the latter part of the period. Assuming that the low-level center will become at least a little more embedded within the convection later tonight, the system is forecast to strengthen into a tropical storm overnight. The storm will probably be short-lived, however, with increased shear and cooler waters causing the system to degenerate into a remnant low in a couple of days. The official forecast is not far from the model consensus predictions, but a more rapid weakening is predicted by the global models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 17.6N 112.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 18.3N 114.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 19.2N 116.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 20.0N 117.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 04/0000Z 20.4N 118.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 04/1200Z 20.7N 119.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

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