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Hurricane Hilda Public Advisory Number 8
2021-08-01 16:43:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 01 2021 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 011443 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Hilda Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 01 2021 ...HILDA IN NO HURRY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.6N 120.2W ABOUT 885 MI...1420 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hilda was located near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 120.2 West. Hilda is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A west-northwestward to northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today, with gradual weakening expected to begin on Monday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Hilda Forecast Advisory Number 8
2021-08-01 16:43:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 01 2021 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 011443 TCMEP3 HURRICANE HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 1500 UTC SUN AUG 01 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 120.2W AT 01/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 120.2W AT 01/1500Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 119.8W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 14.9N 121.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 15.4N 122.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 16.1N 123.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.9N 124.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.0N 125.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.0N 127.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 20.2N 131.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 20.5N 135.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 120.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Nine-E Forecast Discussion Number 7
2021-08-01 10:39:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM HST Sat Jul 31 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 010838 TCDEP4 Post-Tropical Cyclone Nine-E Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021 1100 PM HST Sat Jul 31 2021 The depression has remained poorly organized for more than 24 hours and has produced a very limited amount of convection during that time. As a result of the lack of organized deep convection over the past day, the system no longer meets the definition of a tropical cyclone, and it has degenerated into a remnant low. In addition, the original low-level swirl that was tracked over the past day or so appears to have been absorbed within the envelope of the broader low pressure area. The system's initial intensity is maintained at 25 kt, but this could be generous. The depression has been plagued by shear and dry air entrainment, and those conditions are expected to persist for at least the next couple of days. If the system is able to survive past 72 hours, there is some chance of redevelopment when the shear decreases later in the period. However, given the uncertainty surrounding the potential interaction with Hurricane Hilda located to the cyclone's northeast, the official forecast calls for the system to remain a remnant low, and this will be the final NHC advisory on this system unless regeneration occurs. The cyclone has been nearly stationary overnight, but it is forecast to begin a slow westward to west-northwestward motion later today, and that motion should continue for the next few days. After that time, possible interaction with Hilda increases the track forecast uncertainty, but since the majority of the dynamical models keep the low on a west-northwestward heading, so does the NHC forecast. Future information on the remnant low can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php Information on potential regeneration will be available in the Tropical Weather Outlook as needed. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 11.4N 127.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 01/1800Z 11.8N 128.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 02/0600Z 12.0N 129.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 02/1800Z 12.3N 131.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 03/0600Z 12.7N 132.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 03/1800Z 13.1N 134.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 04/0600Z 13.5N 135.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 05/0600Z 14.5N 137.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 06/0600Z 15.5N 140.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Nine-E Public Advisory Number 7
2021-08-01 10:38:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM HST Sat Jul 31 2021 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 010838 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Nine-E Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021 1100 PM HST Sat Jul 31 2021 ...DEPRESSION DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.4N 127.5W ABOUT 1405 MI...2260 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Nine-E was located near latitude 11.4 North, longitude 127.5 West. The post-tropical cyclone is stationary. A slow westward to west-northwestward motion is expected to begin later today and continue during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected over the next couple of days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system unless regeneration occurs. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Brown
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Nine-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2021-08-01 10:38:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 01 2021 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 010838 PWSEP4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092021 0900 UTC SUN AUG 01 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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