je.st
news
Tag: kenneth
Summary for Tropical Storm Kenneth (EP3/EP132017)
2017-08-19 12:23:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL STORM KENNETH FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sat Aug 19 the center of Kenneth was located near 15.6, -120.2 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Tags: summary
storm
tropical
kenneth
Tropical Storm Kenneth Public Advisory Number 4
2017-08-19 12:23:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Aug 19 2017 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 191022 CCA TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kenneth Advisory Number 4...CORRRECTED NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132017 200 AM PDT Sat Aug 19 2017 CORRECTED STORM NAME IN DISCUSSION SECTION ...TROPICAL STORM KENNETH FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.6N 120.2W ABOUT 840 MI...1350 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kenneth was located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 120.2 West. Kenneth is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this motion should continue during the weekend. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Kenneth could become a hurricane on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Tropical Storm Kenneth Graphics
2017-08-19 10:45:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Aug 2017 08:45:04 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Aug 2017 09:29:11 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
tropical
kenneth
Tropical Storm Kenneth Forecast Discussion Number 4
2017-08-19 10:39:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Aug 19 2017 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 190839 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kenneth Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132017 200 AM PDT Sat Aug 19 2017 Microwave data reveal that Kenneth is not well organized yet with the low- and mid-level centers well separated. The low-level center is located on the northeastern edge of the convection due to northerly shear as diagnosed by the SHIPS model. The overall outflow pattern is well established. A partial ASCAT pass around 0500 UTC and Dvorak estimates indicate that the initial intensity remains at 35 kt. The shear is forecast to decrease a little, and Kenneth will be moving over warm waters for the next two days. On this basis, the NHC forecast calls for some strengthening, and Kenneth could become a hurricane by Sunday. By the end of the forecast period, the cyclone is expected to be moving over cooler waters and weakening should then begin. The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west-northwest or 285 degrees at 14 kt. The cyclone is embedded within the flow around the subtropical high, and this track should continue for the next day or two. After that time, Kenneth should have reached the western end of ridge, and it should then gradually turn more to the northwest or north-northwest. For the next 2 to 3 days, the track guidance is pretty tightly clustered, increasing the confidence in the forecast. Beyond 3 days, the forecast is less certain since the guidance spread is large. The NHC forecast is in the middle of the guidance envelope which is bounded by the ECMWF on the west side and by the GFS and the HWRF models on the right. The official forecast does not depart much from the previous one during the first 3 days, and is shifted a little bit to the right thereafter. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 15.6N 120.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 16.0N 122.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 20/0600Z 16.6N 125.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 20/1800Z 17.5N 127.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 21/0600Z 18.5N 129.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 22/0600Z 20.5N 131.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 23/0600Z 23.5N 132.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 24/0600Z 26.5N 133.5W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm Kenneth Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2017-08-19 10:39:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 190839 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132017 0900 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KENNETH WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 125W 34 X 20(20) 4(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) 20N 125W 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 3(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) 1(12) X(12) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 35(41) 30(71) 1(72) X(72) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 26(33) 1(34) X(34) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 1(14) X(14) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 3(18) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 6(16) X(16) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 8(17) 25N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 30N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Sites : [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] [28] [29] [30] [31] next »