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Hurricane Kenneth Public Advisory Number 12
2017-08-21 10:45:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Mon Aug 21 2017 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 210845 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Kenneth Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132017 200 AM PDT Mon Aug 21 2017 ...KENNETH CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.4N 130.0W ABOUT 1355 MI...2180 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kenneth was located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 130.0 West. Kenneth is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the northwest, then north-northwest is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Kenneth is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. A little additional strengthening is possible this morning, before weakening begins tonight. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb (28.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Kenneth Forecast Advisory Number 12
2017-08-21 10:44:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 21 2017 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 210844 TCMEP3 HURRICANE KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132017 0900 UTC MON AUG 21 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 130.0W AT 21/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 952 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 130.0W AT 21/0900Z AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 129.6W FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 18.2N 131.2W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 19.7N 132.3W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 21.3N 133.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 23.1N 134.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 26.6N 135.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 29.0N 136.3W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 30.5N 137.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 130.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane Kenneth Graphics
2017-08-21 05:01:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 21 Aug 2017 03:01:30 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 21 Aug 2017 03:25:38 GMT
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Hurricane Kenneth Forecast Discussion Number 11
2017-08-21 04:52:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sun Aug 20 2017 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 210252 TCDEP3 Hurricane Kenneth Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132017 800 PM PDT Sun Aug 20 2017 Kenneth has rapidly intensified into a major hurricane this evening, as the eye has dramatically warmed and the surrounding cloud tops of the eyewall have cooled. At 00Z, a blend of TAFB, SAB, and ADT Dvorak classifications averaged maximum winds of 95 kt. However, the continued convective development in the last three hours suggests that the advisory intensity be boosted to 100 kt, and even that may be conservative. While the hurricane has shown an impressive evolution in the last day, this should not continue much longer. Kenneth will reach the 26C SST isotherm with drier, less unstable air late Monday, and it is anticipated that Kenneth will peak by then. In about three days, the vertical shear will go up appreciably due to Kenneth approaching an upper-level trough. The combination of the hostile thermodynamics and shear should cause a steady weakening through the forecast period. Kenneth's deep convection is likely to dissipate in three to four days, signaling the system's transformation to a post-tropical cyclone. The official intensity forecast is substantially higher than previously in the short-term due to the unanticipated rapid intensification, but similar for 36 hours and beyond. This prediction is closest to a blend of the HMON dynamical model and the LGEM/SHIPS statistical models. The hurricane is moving toward the west-northwest at 9 kt, steered by a weak mid-level ridge to its northeast. Kenneth should gradually turn toward the north-northwest during the next couple of days at about the same rate of forward speed, as it rounds the mid-level ridge and is impacted by a cut-off mid- to upper-level low farther north. Once Kenneth becomes a post-tropical cyclone in about 4 days, its forward speed should slow as it reaches a weaker steering flow. The official track forecast is nearly unchanged through day 2 and is farther north beyond that time, based upon the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 16.8N 129.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 17.4N 130.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 18.7N 131.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 22/1200Z 20.3N 132.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 23/0000Z 22.1N 133.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 24/0000Z 25.5N 135.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 25/0000Z 28.5N 136.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 26/0000Z 30.0N 136.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Landsea
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Hurricane Kenneth Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2017-08-21 04:51:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 21 2017 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 210251 PWSEP3 HURRICANE KENNETH WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132017 0300 UTC MON AUG 21 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KENNETH WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 129.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 130W 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 130W 34 1 16(17) 9(26) 2(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) 20N 130W 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) X(10) 20N 135W 34 X 2( 2) 14(16) 11(27) 2(29) X(29) X(29) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 47(55) 4(59) X(59) 25N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 1(19) X(19) 25N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 30N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 3(15) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 30N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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