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Hurricane Kenneth Public Advisory Number 9
2017-08-20 16:31:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 20 2017 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 201431 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Kenneth Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132017 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 20 2017 ...KENNETH IS NOW A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.3N 127.4W ABOUT 1225 MI...1970 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kenneth was located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 127.4 West. Kenneth is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A slower west-northwestward motion is expected today, and a turn toward the northwest is forecast to occur on Monday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or so. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane Kenneth Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2017-08-20 16:31:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 20 2017 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 201431 PWSEP3 HURRICANE KENNETH WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132017 1500 UTC SUN AUG 20 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KENNETH WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 130W 34 2 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 130W 34 2 7( 9) 11(20) 4(24) 2(26) X(26) X(26) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 15N 135W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 135W 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 31(41) 8(49) X(49) X(49) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) X(11) X(11) 20N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 27(29) 19(48) X(48) 25N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) X(14) 25N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 30N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Hurricane Kenneth Forecast Advisory Number 9
2017-08-20 16:31:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 20 2017 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 201431 TCMEP3 HURRICANE KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132017 1500 UTC SUN AUG 20 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 127.4W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 75SE 45SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 127.4W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 126.9W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 16.8N 129.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 17.8N 131.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 19.0N 132.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 20.4N 133.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 23.7N 134.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 26.7N 136.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 28.0N 137.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 127.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Kenneth Graphics
2017-08-20 10:43:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 20 Aug 2017 08:43:16 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 20 Aug 2017 09:22:48 GMT
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Tropical Storm Kenneth Forecast Discussion Number 8
2017-08-20 10:39:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Aug 20 2017 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 200838 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kenneth Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132017 200 AM PDT Sun Aug 20 2017 The overall cloud pattern of Kenneth has changed little since the previous advisory. The center remains embedded with a fairly symmetric central dense overcast, but there has been no evidence of an eye in infrared satellite pictures overnight. Subjective and objective Dvorak T-numbers are between 3.5 and 4.0, which support maintaining an initial wind speed of 60 kt. Kenneth is forecast to remain within a low shear environment and over warm water for another 24 to 36 hours. This should result in strengthening and Kenneth is expected to become a hurricane later today. After that time, decreasing sea surface temperatures and less favorable thermodynamic conditions should cause gradual weakening. Late in the period, increasing southwesterly shear should hasten Kenneth's demise and the system is expected to become a remnant low by day 5. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the SHIPS guidance and the IVCN multi-model consensus through 72 hours, but is a little below this guidance at days 4 and 5. Kenneth has been moving generally westward during the past 24 hours and recent satellite fixes suggest that Kenneth's forward motion has slowed to about 13 kt. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged from the previous few advisories, with Kenneth expected to move around the western portion of a subtropical ridge over the next couple of days. By Tuesday, a developing weakness in the ridge should cause Kenneth to turn northwestward, then north-northwestward late in the period. The early portion of the track forecast has been shifted a little southward, primarily due to a more southward initial position as noted by recent microwave data. After 72 h, the dynamical models have come into a little better agreement and little change was required to the previous NHC track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 16.0N 126.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 16.4N 127.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 17.2N 129.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 18.2N 131.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 22/0600Z 19.5N 132.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 23/0600Z 22.7N 134.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 24/0600Z 25.9N 136.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 25/0600Z 27.5N 137.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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