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Hurricane Kenneth Graphics
2017-08-21 16:37:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 21 Aug 2017 14:37:41 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 21 Aug 2017 15:26:07 GMT
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Hurricane Kenneth Forecast Discussion Number 13
2017-08-21 16:32:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Mon Aug 21 2017 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 211432 TCDEP3 Hurricane Kenneth Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132017 800 AM PDT Mon Aug 21 2017 Kenneth continues to have an impressive structure in satellite images. The eye of the hurricane remains distinct, and the convective pattern is symmetric around the center. The cloud tops in the eyewall, however, are not quite as cold as they were overnight, which resulted in a decrease of the 1200 UTC Dvorak final-T numbers from TAFB and SAB. Based on an average of the final T- and CI-numbers from TAFB/SAB and ADT values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin, the initial wind speed is lowered a little, to 110 kt. Kenneth has likely reached its peak intensity as it will be crossing the 26 deg C isotherm later today. In addition, the hurricane will be moving into a progressively drier air mass. These unfavorable thermodynamics combined with a significant increase in southerly shear beginning in about 2 days should cause Kenneth to weaken at a steady or rapid pace. The system is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone in about 3 days when the shear is expected to increase to near 30 kt while Kenneth is over SSTs below 23 deg C. These conditions should cause the associated convection to dissipate or be sheared away from the circulation. The NHC intensity forecast generally follows the IVCN and HCCA consensus models. The major hurricane is moving west-northwestward at 9 kt steered by a mid-level ridge to its northeast. The system is forecast to turn to the northwest later today, followed by a north-northwestward motion by late Tuesday as Kenneth moves into a pronounced weakness caused by a cut-off low near the California coast. The models are in fairly good agreement, and only minor changes were made to the previous NHC track forecast. This forecast lies close to the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 17.9N 130.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 18.9N 132.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 20.4N 133.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 22.2N 134.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 24.1N 134.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 24/1200Z 27.4N 136.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 25/1200Z 29.6N 136.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 26/1200Z 31.0N 138.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Hurricane Kenneth (EP3/EP132017)
2017-08-21 16:32:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KENNETH REMAINS A MAJOR HURRICANE... As of 8:00 AM PDT Mon Aug 21 the center of Kenneth was located near 17.9, -130.9 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 957 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.
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hurricane kenneth
Hurricane Kenneth Public Advisory Number 13
2017-08-21 16:32:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Mon Aug 21 2017 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 211432 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Kenneth Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132017 800 AM PDT Mon Aug 21 2017 ...KENNETH REMAINS A MAJOR HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 130.9W ABOUT 1400 MI...2255 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Kenneth was located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 130.9 West. Kenneth is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected later today, followed by a north-northwest motion by late Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Kenneth is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Steady weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb (28.26 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane Kenneth Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2017-08-21 16:32:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 21 2017 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 211432 PWSEP3 HURRICANE KENNETH WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132017 1500 UTC MON AUG 21 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KENNETH WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 130.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 130W 34 2 3( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 135W 34 1 18(19) 9(28) 1(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) 20N 135W 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 135W 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 46(53) 22(75) X(75) X(75) 25N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) 21(34) X(34) X(34) 25N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) X(10) 30N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 9(16) 2(18) 30N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 30N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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