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Hurricane Kenneth Forecast Discussion Number 14
2017-08-21 22:36:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Mon Aug 21 2017 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 212036 TCDEP3 Hurricane Kenneth Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132017 200 PM PDT Mon Aug 21 2017 Satellite images suggest that Kenneth is gradually weakening. Although the eye remains fairly distinct, the convection in the eyewall is not quite as deep as it was earlier today. An average of the latest final T- and CI-numbers from TAFB/SAB and ADT values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin support lowering the initial wind speed a little, to 105 kt. Kenneth is now moving northwestward at 9 kt steered by a mid-level ridge to its northeast. The hurricane is forecast to turn north-northwestward on Tuesday when it moves into a pronounced break in the ridge and it should continue in that general direction for the remainder of the forecast period. The models are in good agreement, and little change has been made to the previous NHC track forecast. This forecast remains near the middle of the guidance envelope. The hurricane is nearing the 26 deg C isotherm, and it is expected to cross into those cooler waters by tonight. Cool waters, stable air, and an increase in southerly wind shear should cause steady or even rapid weakening of the system during the next few days. Kenneth is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone in 3 days, or sooner, when it will be over SSTs below 23 deg C and in an environment of more than 30 kt of shear. The NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one, and it is in best agreement with the consensus models HCCA and IVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 18.3N 131.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 19.4N 132.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 21.2N 133.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 23.0N 134.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 23/1800Z 24.8N 135.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 24/1800Z 27.8N 136.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 25/1800Z 29.6N 137.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 26/1800Z 31.0N 138.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane Kenneth Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2017-08-21 22:34:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 21 2017 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 212034 PWSEP3 HURRICANE KENNETH WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132017 2100 UTC MON AUG 21 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KENNETH WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 131.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 130W 34 4 2( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 25N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 135W 34 2 13(15) 4(19) X(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) 25N 135W 34 X 2( 2) 14(16) 44(60) 9(69) X(69) X(69) 25N 135W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 6(25) X(25) X(25) 25N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 30N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 8(16) 1(17) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 30N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Summary for Hurricane Kenneth (EP3/EP132017)
2017-08-21 22:34:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KENNETH WEAKENS A LITTLE BUT STILL A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE... As of 2:00 PM PDT Mon Aug 21 the center of Kenneth was located near 18.3, -131.6 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 960 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.
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Hurricane Kenneth Public Advisory Number 14
2017-08-21 22:34:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Mon Aug 21 2017 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 212034 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Kenneth Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132017 200 PM PDT Mon Aug 21 2017 ...KENNETH WEAKENS A LITTLE BUT STILL A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.3N 131.6W ABOUT 1435 MI...2310 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kenneth was located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 131.6 West. Kenneth is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn to the north-northwest is expected on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Kenneth is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Steady weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane Kenneth Forecast Advisory Number 14
2017-08-21 22:34:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 21 2017 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 212034 TCMEP3 HURRICANE KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132017 2100 UTC MON AUG 21 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 131.6W AT 21/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 150SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 131.6W AT 21/2100Z AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 131.2W FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 19.4N 132.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 21.2N 133.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 23.0N 134.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 24.8N 135.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 27.8N 136.2W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 29.6N 137.2W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 31.0N 138.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 131.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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