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Post-Tropical Cyclone CARLOS Forecast Discussion Number 29

2015-06-17 22:33:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 400 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 172033 TCDEP3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 400 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 The center of the small low-level circulation of Carlos is difficult to locate, but it appears in visible satellite imagery to be located near Cabo Corrientes, Mexico. Organized deep convection has been absent from the center for more than six hours, and what little convection that exists is quite shallow and is being disrupted by the rugged terrain of western Mexico. On this basis, Carlos is being designated as a remnant low, and advisories are being discontinued at this time. Steady weakening of the vortex is expected to continue during the next day or so due to unfavorable thermodynamic conditions, and global model guidance shows degenerating into an open trough by Thursday. The NHC forecast, therefore, calls for dissipation within the next 24 hours. The initial motion estimate remains 330/06 kt. For the next 24 hours, the remnant circulation of Carlos should continue to move slowly north-northwestward around the western periphery of a weak mid-level ridge that is located over central and eastern Mexico, and move into the southern Gulf of California by Thursday morning where dissipation of the system is expected. For additional information on this remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS header NFDHSFEP1 and WMO header FZPN01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 20.2N 105.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 20.7N 106.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone CARLOS (EP3/EP032015)

2015-06-17 22:32:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...CARLOS BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 4:00 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 the center of CARLOS was located near 20.2, -105.6 with movement NNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

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Post-Tropical Cyclone CARLOS Public Advisory Number 29

2015-06-17 22:32:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 400 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 172032 TCPEP3 BULLETIN POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CARLOS ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 400 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 ...CARLOS BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.2N 105.6W ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Carlos was located near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 105.6 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue until dissipation occurs later tonight or Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected during the next day or so, and Carlos is forecast to dissipate by Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Carlos is expected to produce an additional rainfall accumulation of around 1 inch across the Mexican state of Jalisco. These rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of higher terrain. SURF: Swells associated with Carlos will continue to affect the coast of southwestern Mexico through tonight before subsiding on Thursday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information on this remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN01 KWBC, and on the web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEP1.shtml. $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Post-Tropical Cyclone CARLOS Forecast Advisory Number 29

2015-06-17 22:32:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUN 17 2015 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 172032 TCMEP3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 2100 UTC WED JUN 17 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 105.6W AT 17/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 105.6W AT 17/2100Z AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 105.5W FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 20.7N 106.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.2N 105.6W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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