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Hurricane CARLOS Public Advisory Number 25

2015-06-16 22:39:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 400 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 162039 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE CARLOS ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 400 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 ...CARLOS PRODUCING 90-MPH WINDS... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 104.4W ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula, Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Carlos was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 104.4 West. Carlos is moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday night. A turn toward the north-northwest is forecast by Thursday. On the forecast track, Carlos should move parallel to and just offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico over the next couple of days. However, only a small deviation to the northeast of the forecast track would bring the center of Carlos near the coast. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, but Carlos could remain a hurricane through Wednesday. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). The minimum central pressure reported by the aircraft was 984 mb (29.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area through Wednesday night. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area through Wednesday. RAINFALL: Carlos is expected to produce heavy rains in the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit, Durango, and Sinaloa with rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches possible through Thursday morning. Isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches are also possible. These rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, especially in areas of higher terrain. SURF: Swells associated with Carlos will continue to affect the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

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Hurricane CARLOS Graphics

2015-06-16 19:39:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 16 Jun 2015 17:39:27 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 16 Jun 2015 15:39:31 GMT

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Summary for Hurricane CARLOS (EP3/EP032015)

2015-06-16 19:37:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS CARLOS STRONGER... As of 1:00 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 the center of CARLOS was located near 17.5, -104.2 with movement WNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 984 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

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Hurricane CARLOS Public Advisory Number 24A

2015-06-16 19:37:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 100 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 161736 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE CARLOS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 24A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 100 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS CARLOS STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 104.2W ABOUT 105 MI...175 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula, Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Carlos was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 104.2 West. Carlos is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected tonight or on Wednesday. On the forecast track, Carlos should move parallel to and just offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico over the next couple of days. However, only a small deviation to the northeast of the forecast track would bring Carlos closer to the coastline. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected during the next 24 hours, but weakening is forecast to begin on Wednesday. Carlos is a tiny hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km). The minimum central pressure reported by the aircraft was 984 mb (29.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area through Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area through this evening. RAINFALL: Carlos is expected to produce heavy rains in the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit, Durango, and Sinaloa with rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches possible through Thursday morning. Isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches are also possible. These rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, especially in areas of higher terrain. SURF: Swells associated with Carlos will continue to affect the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

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