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Tropical Storm CARLOS Public Advisory Number 27
2015-06-17 10:36:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 170835 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CARLOS ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 400 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 ...CARLOS RAPIDLY WEAKENING... ...APPROACHING THE COAST OF WESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.0N 104.8W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlos was located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 104.8 West. Carlos is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue until dissipation occurs Friday. On this forecast track, the center of Carlos will cross the coast in the Tropical Storm Warning area today and move over the western coast of Mexico tonight. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Further rapid weakening is expected as Carlos moves over the coast, and the cyclone is expected to become a remnant low Thursday morning as it moves off of the coast of western Mexico and into the southern Gulf of California. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area today. RAINFALL: Carlos is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches across the the Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit through Friday. These rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, especially in areas of higher terrain. SURF: Swells associated with Carlos will continue to affect the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or two. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm CARLOS Forecast Advisory Number 27
2015-06-17 10:36:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUN 17 2015 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 170835 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 0900 UTC WED JUN 17 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES...MEXICO TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 104.8W AT 17/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 10NE 20SE 20SW 10NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 25NE 45SE 45SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 104.8W AT 17/0900Z AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 104.7W FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 19.8N 105.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 20.6N 105.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 21.1N 106.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 104.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Tropical Storm CARLOS Graphics
2015-06-17 07:41:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 17 Jun 2015 05:41:46 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 17 Jun 2015 03:05:36 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm CARLOS (EP3/EP032015)
2015-06-17 07:39:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CARLOS WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... ...DECAYING RAPIDLY... As of 1:00 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 the center of CARLOS was located near 18.7, -104.7 with movement NW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 991 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm CARLOS Public Advisory Number 26A
2015-06-17 07:39:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 170538 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CARLOS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 26A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 100 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 ...CARLOS WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... ...DECAYING RAPIDLY... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.7N 104.7W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Hurricane Watch from Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula, Mexico. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlos was located near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 104.7 West. Carlos is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), which is expected to continue for the next day or so until dissipation. Maximum sustained winds have to decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is forecast and Carlos could become a tropical depression later today and dissipate by tonight. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.26 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area today. RAINFALL: Carlos is expected to produce heavy rains in the Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit, Durango, and Sinaloa with rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches possible through Friday. Isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches are also possible. These rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, especially in areas of higher terrain. SURF: Swells associated with Carlos will continue to affect the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or two. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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