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Tropical Storm CARLOS Public Advisory Number 16
2015-06-14 16:49:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 141449 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CARLOS ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 1000 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015 ...CARLOS WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM JUST SOUTH OF MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO RESTRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE BY MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 100.4W ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 190 MI...300 KM SE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning east of Acapulco. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Tecpan de Galeana A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Tecpan de Galeana to Acapulco A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible somewhere within the watch area within 48 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. Interests elsewhere along the southwest coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of Carlos. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlos was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 100.4 West. Carlos is moving toward the northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through Monday. A turn toward the west-northwest with some increase in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. However, some restrengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Carlos is expected to become a hurricane again by Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area today, and Acapulco recently reported a gust to 43 mph (69 km/h). Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area on Monday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area Monday night or early Tuesday. RAINFALL: Carlos is expected to produce rains in the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco, with rainfall accumulations of 6 to 10 inches possible through Tuesday with maximum totals of 15 inches possible. These rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, especially in areas of higher terrain. SURF: Swells associated with Carlos will affect the coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm CARLOS Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2015-06-14 16:49:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUN 14 2015 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 141449 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 1500 UTC SUN JUN 14 2015 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CARLOS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 6(14) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 6(15) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) CULIACAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CULIACAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 11(21) 5(26) MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) MAZATLAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 20(25) 11(36) 3(39) SAN BLAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) 2(11) SAN BLAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) P VALLARTA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 30(38) 7(45) 2(47) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 3(15) 1(16) P VALLARTA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 2( 3) 8(11) 16(27) 28(55) 4(59) X(59) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 16(20) 1(21) 1(22) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) MANZANILLO 34 1 2( 3) 12(15) 18(33) 24(57) 4(61) X(61) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 14(20) 1(21) X(21) MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) L CARDENAS 34 4 42(46) 21(67) 6(73) 4(77) X(77) X(77) L CARDENAS 50 X 9( 9) 17(26) 4(30) 2(32) 1(33) X(33) L CARDENAS 64 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) 1(10) X(10) ZIHUATANEJO 34 21 39(60) 10(70) 2(72) 2(74) X(74) X(74) ZIHUATANEJO 50 1 14(15) 6(21) 1(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) ZIHUATANEJO 64 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) ACAPULCO 34 32 5(37) 3(40) 1(41) 1(42) X(42) X(42) ACAPULCO 50 2 X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P MALDONADO 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 19(22) 13(35) 4(39) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) 2(16) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm CARLOS Forecast Advisory Number 16
2015-06-14 16:48:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUN 14 2015 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 141448 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 1500 UTC SUN JUN 14 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING EAST OF ACAPULCO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA SAN TELMO TO TECPAN DE GALEANA A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO MANZANILLO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF TECPAN DE GALEANA TO ACAPULCO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CARLOS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 100.4W AT 14/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 75SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 100.4W AT 14/1500Z AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 100.3W FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 16.3N 101.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 16.8N 102.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 17.3N 102.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 17.9N 103.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 20.2N 104.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 60SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 21.9N 105.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 23.8N 105.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 100.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane CARLOS Graphics
2015-06-14 13:45:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 14 Jun 2015 11:45:43 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 14 Jun 2015 09:03:44 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane CARLOS (EP3/EP032015)
2015-06-14 13:41:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CARLOS WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE WHILE IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO... As of 7:00 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 the center of CARLOS was located near 15.8, -100.3 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 983 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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