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Hurricane CARLOS Public Advisory Number 15A
2015-06-14 13:41:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 141141 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE CARLOS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 700 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015 ...CARLOS WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE WHILE IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.8N 100.3W ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Tecpan de Galeana A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Tecpan de Galeana to Punta Maldonado A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible somewhere within the watch area within 48 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. Interests elsewhere along the southwest coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of Carlos. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Carlos was located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 100.3 West. Carlos has been nearly stationary for the past few hours. However, a turn toward the northwest and west-northwest with some increase in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. However, some restrengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force-winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area later today. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area on Monday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area Monday night or early Tuesday. RAINFALL: Carlos is expected to produce rains in the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco, with rainfall accumulations of 6 to 10 inches possible through Tuesday with maximum totals of 15 inches possible. These rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, especially in areas of higher terrain. SURF: Swells associated with Carlos will affect the coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane CARLOS Graphics
2015-06-14 11:03:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 14 Jun 2015 08:33:00 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 14 Jun 2015 09:03:44 GMT
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Hurricane CARLOS Forecast Discussion Number 15
2015-06-14 10:35:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 140835 TCDEP3 HURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 400 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015 The satellite presentation of Carlos has deteriorated overnight, with a decrease of inner-core deep convection and less well-defined convective banding features. An eye is no longer present on satellite images, and only about half of an eyewall was seen in the Acapulco radar data. Dvorak T-numbers have decreased, and using a blend of final-T and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB the current intensity is set at 70 kt. Given that the hurricane has been over the same general area for over a day, it is likely that the cyclone is being influenced by upwelled and cooled ocean waters. This has probably contributed to the weakening, as was also seen with slow-moving Hurricane Blanca over a week ago. The north-northeasterly shear that had been affecting the system has lessened, and the shear should remain fairly weak for the next few days. Assuming that Carlos will be moving away from its cool wake soon, restrengthening should begin later today. The official intensity forecast is below the previous one, but above the available guidance. The intensity forecast in the latter part of the forecast period is highly uncertain since it depends on the extent to which the circulation will interact with the Mexican landmass in 1 to 3 days. The initial motion continues to be quite slow, or 340/3 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north of Carlos is expected to build a little over the next couple of days. This should cause a turn toward the northwest and west-northwest with some increase in forward speed in 1 to 2 days. Beyond that time the ridge weakens, so in 3 to 5 days the tropical cyclone should turn toward the north-northwest. As noted earlier, while the dynamical models generally agree on the overall pattern, there is disagreement on where and when Carlos will make landfall in southwestern Mexico. The latest ECMWF solution shows landfall within 3 days whereas the GFS shows landfall much sooner, within 1 to 2 days. Some of the other guidance, such as the UKMET model, does not show landfall at all. The official track forecast is similar to the previous one and is close to the ECMWF solution. Based on the new forecast track, the government of Mexico has extended the hurricane warning westward to Punta San Telmo. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 15.8N 100.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 16.3N 101.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 16.9N 102.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 17.5N 103.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 16/0600Z 18.0N 104.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 17/0600Z 20.0N 105.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 96H 18/0600Z 21.5N 105.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 19/0600Z 23.5N 106.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Hurricane CARLOS (EP3/EP032015)
2015-06-14 10:32:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...SLOW-MOVING CARLOS WEAKENS A LITTLE BUT EXPECTED TO RESTRENGTHEN... As of 4:00 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 the center of CARLOS was located near 15.8, -100.3 with movement NNW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 980 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
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Hurricane CARLOS Public Advisory Number 15
2015-06-14 10:32:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 140832 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE CARLOS ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 400 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015 ...SLOW-MOVING CARLOS WEAKENS A LITTLE BUT EXPECTED TO RESTRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.8N 100.3W ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has extended the Hurricane Warning west of Lazaro Cardenas to Punta San Telmo. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Tecpan de Galeana A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Tecpan de Galeana to Punta Maldonado A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible somewhere within the watch area within 48 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. Interests elsewhere along the southwest coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of Carlos. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Carlos was located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 100.3 West. Carlos is moving toward the north-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A turn toward the northwest and west-northwest with some increase in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Restrengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area later today. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area on Monday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area Monday night or early Tuesday. RAINFALL: Carlos is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 10 inches across the southwestern coast of Mexico through Tuesday with maximum totals of 15 inches possible. The states of Mexico affected include Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco. These rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, especially in areas of higher terrain. SURF: Swells associated with Carlos will affect the coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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