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Tropical Depression PATRICIA Forecast Discussion Number 19
2015-10-24 16:34:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 241434 TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 1000 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015 Patricia continues to weaken rapidly over the mountains of central Mexico. Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that the mid- to upper-level center is now displaced to the northeast of the surface center, and there is little organized convection associated with the cyclone. The initial intensity is reduced to 30 kt based mainly on surface observations, and this could be generous. Patricia is likely to degenerate to a remnant low or trough during the next 6-12 hours as it moves northeastward into northeastern Mexico. A low pressure area is developing over southern Texas, with the system forecast to move over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico later in the weekend. This system should be non-tropical in nature. However, the low is likely to absorb the remnants of Patricia along with the associated moisture, and this is expected to result in locally heavy rainfall over portions of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico coastal area. Refer to statements from local National Weather Service forecast offices for details on this system. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Even though Patricia is weakening rapidly, continued very heavy rainfall is likely to cause life- threatening flash floods and mudslides in the Mexican states of Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero through today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 23.9N 101.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 26.0N 99.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression PATRICIA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2015-10-24 16:34:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 24 2015 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 241433 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION PATRICIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 1500 UTC SAT OCT 24 2015 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION PATRICIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Tropical Depression PATRICIA (EP5/EP202015)
2015-10-24 16:32:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...PATRICIA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER CENTRAL MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAIN THREAT CONTINUES... As of 10:00 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 the center of PATRICIA was located near 23.9, -101.6 with movement NE at 24 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression PATRICIA Public Advisory Number 19
2015-10-24 16:32:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 241432 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION PATRICIA ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 1000 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015 ...PATRICIA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER CENTRAL MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAIN THREAT CONTINUES... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.9N 101.6W ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM NE OF ZACATECAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Patricia was located near latitude 23.9 North, longitude 101.6 West. The depression is moving toward the northeast near 24 mph (39 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Patricia will move across central and northeastern Mexico today and tonight. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Patricia is expected to degenerate to a remnant low pressure area later today or tonight over northeastern Mexico. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Wind gusts to tropical-storm force are possible near the center through this afternoon, especially in higher elevations. RAINFALL: Patricia is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 12 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches, over the Mexican states of Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan, and Guerrero through Saturday. In addition, the heavy rain threat ahead of Patricia or its remnants will increase Saturday across northeast Mexico into coastal sections of Texas. This heavy rain threat will continue across the western Gulf Coast through this weekend and spread into the central Gulf Coast by early next week. These rains are likely to produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. STORM SURGE: Water levels are expected to gradually subside but will remain above normal through this afternoon. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression PATRICIA Forecast Advisory Number 19
2015-10-24 16:32:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 24 2015 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 241431 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION PATRICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 1500 UTC SAT OCT 24 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 101.6W AT 24/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 21 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 101.6W AT 24/1500Z AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 102.3W FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 26.0N 99.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.9N 101.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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