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Hurricane PATRICIA Public Advisory Number 15A
2015-10-23 19:59:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 231759 TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE PATRICIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 100 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 ...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE PATRICIA MOVING CLOSER TO LANDFALL IN MEXICO... ...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER REPORTS LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.2N 105.3W ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...200 MPH...325 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...879 MB...25.96 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * San Blas to Punta San Telmo A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas * North of San Blas to El Roblito A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within about 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Patricia was located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 105.3 West. Patricia is now moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast and a faster forward motion are expected this afternoon, with this motion continuing tonight and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Patricia should cross the coast in the hurricane warning area during the next several hours. After landfall, the center of Patricia is expected to move quickly north-northeastward across western and northern Mexico. Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 200 mph (325 km/h) with higher gusts. Patricia is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible this afternoon, but Patricia is expected to remain an extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane through landfall. After landfall, Patricia is forecast to rapidly weaken over the mountains of Mexico. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The minimum central pressure estimated from the NOAA aircraft data is 879 mb (25.96 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions should reach the hurricane warning area during the next few hours, with the worst conditions likely this afternoon and this evening. Tropical storm conditions are now spreading across portions of the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area today. RAINFALL: Patricia is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 12 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches, over the Mexican states of Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan, and Guerrero through Saturday. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. STORM SURGE: An extremely dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the right of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Patricia are already affecting portions of the southern coast of Mexico, and will spread northwestward during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Historic Hurricane Patricia strikes Mexico vicious Category 5 storm
2015-10-23 19:42:00| Climate Ark Climate Change & Global Warming Newsfeed
Mashable: Hurricane Patricia, the strongest storm on record in the Western Hemisphere, made landfall near Cuixmala along the coast of western Mexico at 6:15 p.m. CT with maximum sustained winds of 165 miles per hour. After slamming the coast, Patricia moved inland about 50 miles northwest of Manzanillo with maximum sustained winds of 160 mph, a slight decrease since landfall, according to the National Hurricane Center. The storm weakened further by 10 p.m. PT, with maximum sustained winds dropping to 130...
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Hurricane PATRICIA Graphics
2015-10-23 17:14:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 23 Oct 2015 14:52:01 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 23 Oct 2015 15:06:38 GMT
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Hurricane PATRICIA Forecast Discussion Number 15
2015-10-23 16:49:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 231449 TCDEP5 HURRICANE PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 1000 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 There has been little change in the satellite appearance of Patricia since the earlier Hurricane Hunter aircraft left the hurricane. Based on this, the initial intensity remains 175 kt. Some fluctuations in strength are possible before landfall, but it is expected that Patricia will make landfall as a Category 5 hurricane in southwestern Mexico in less than 12 hours. After landfall, a combination of the mountainous terrain of Mexico and increasing shear should cause the cyclone to rapidly weaken, with the system likely to dissipate completely after 36 hours. The hurricane has turned northward since the previous advisory and the initial motion is now 005/9. Patricia is about to recurve into the westerlies between a mid-level anticyclone to its east and a deep-layer trough over northwestern Mexico and the southwestern U. S. These features should steer the cyclone generally north-northeastward across western and northern Mexico until dissipation occurs. The new forecast track is an update of the previous track. The global models continue to depict the development of a cyclone near the Texas coast over the weekend. This system should be non-tropical in nature. However, this cyclone is expected to draw significant amounts of moisture from Patricia's remnants, and could result in locally heavy rainfall over portions of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico coastal area within the next few days. Refer to statements from local National Weather Service forecast offices for details. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Confidence is high that Patricia will make landfall in the hurricane warning area along the coast of Mexico as an extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane this afternoon or evening. Preparations to protect life and property in the hurricane warning area should have been completed, or rushed to completion, as tropical storm conditions are spreading across the area. Residents in low-lying areas near the coast in the hurricane warning area should evacuate immediately, since the storm surge could be catastrophic near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. 2. In addition to the coastal impacts, very heavy rainfall is likely to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides in the Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero continuing into Saturday. 3. At this time, the Category 5 winds are occurring over a very small area near the center - about 15 miles across. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Patricia before landfall to see what changes in intensity and structure have occurred. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 17.6N 105.5W 175 KT 200 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 19.8N 105.1W 130 KT 150 MPH...INLAND 24H 24/1200Z 22.9N 103.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 36H 25/0000Z 25.7N 101.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane PATRICIA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2015-10-23 16:49:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 23 2015 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 231449 PWSEP5 HURRICANE PATRICIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 1500 UTC FRI OCT 23 2015 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PATRICIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 175 KTS...200 MPH...325 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MAZATLAN 34 2 15(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) SAN BLAS 34 64 32(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) SAN BLAS 50 2 37(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) SAN BLAS 64 X 17(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) P VALLARTA 34 98 1(99) 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) P VALLARTA 50 39 45(84) 1(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) P VALLARTA 64 12 41(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 85 2(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 54 3(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) MANZANILLO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MANZANILLO 50 42 3(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) MANZANILLO 64 8 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) L CARDENAS 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ZIHUATANEJO 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 35 23(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) ISLAS MARIAS 50 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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