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Hurricane PATRICIA Graphics
2015-10-24 10:51:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 24 Oct 2015 08:34:07 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 24 Oct 2015 08:50:47 GMT
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Hurricane PATRICIA Forecast Discussion Number 18
2015-10-24 10:34:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 240834 TCDEP5 HURRICANE PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 400 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015 Patricia has been weakening rapidly while moving farther inland over the rugged terrain of western Mexico. Although the circulation is still intact, the associated convection has lost a significant amount of organization. Based on the degraded appearance, the initial intensity is lowered to 65 kt. Patricia is moving quickly north-northeastward at about 18 kt embedded in the flow between a trough over northwestern Mexico and an anticyclone over the Gulf of Mexico. This motion is expected to continue until Patricia dissipates over the mountains of Mexico by tonight. The global models continue to depict the development of a cyclone near the Texas coast over the weekend and this system should be non-tropical in nature. However, this system is expected to draw significant amounts of moisture from Patricia's remnants, and could result in locally heavy rainfall over portions of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico coastal area within the next couple of days. Refer to statements from local National Weather Service forecast offices for details. The wind radii in the southeastern quadrant has been expanded outward significantly based on recent ASCAT passes, which indicated that tropical-storm-force winds were still occurring in a convective band near the coast of southwestern Mexico. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Even though Patricia is weakening quickly, strong and damaging winds at higher elevations could persist through this morning. 2. Continued very heavy rainfall is likely to cause life- threatening flash floods and mudslides in the Mexican states of Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero through today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 22.3N 103.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 12H 24/1800Z 24.6N 101.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Stewart
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Hurricane PATRICIA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2015-10-24 10:34:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 24 2015 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 240833 PWSEP5 HURRICANE PATRICIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 0900 UTC SAT OCT 24 2015 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PATRICIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART
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Hurricane PATRICIA Public Advisory Number 18
2015-10-24 10:33:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 240832 TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE PATRICIA ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 400 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015 ...PATRICIA RAPIDLY WEAKENING OVER MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.3N 103.1W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM...SSW OF ZACATECAS MEXICO ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM ENE OF TEPIC MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning west of Manzanillo. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Manzanillo to Lazaro Cardenas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are likely occurring within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Patricia was located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 103.1 West. Patricia is moving toward the north-northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h). Patricia is forecast to move quickly north-northeastward farther inland over northern and northeastern Mexico today. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected to continue, and Patricia is forecast to become a tropical storm later this morning, and dissipate tonight. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 290 miles (465 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue across portions of the warning area and over inland areas, especially in higher elevations, near the center through this morning. RAINFALL: Patricia is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 12 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches, over the Mexican states of Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan, and Guerrero through Saturday. These rains are likely to produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. During the past 24 hours, a rainfall total of 10.25 inches (260 mm) has been reported at Nevado De Colima in Jalisco state. STORM SURGE: Water levels are expected to gradually subside but will remain above normal through late today. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Stewart
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Hurricane PATRICIA Forecast Advisory Number 18
2015-10-24 10:32:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 24 2015 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 240832 TCMEP5 HURRICANE PATRICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 0900 UTC SAT OCT 24 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WEST OF MANZANILLO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MANZANILLO TO LAZARO CARDENAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 103.1W AT 24/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 250SE 60SW 80NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 103.1W AT 24/0900Z AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 103.8W FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 24.6N 101.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 103.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART
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