je.st
news
Tag: patricia
Hurricane PATRICIA Public Advisory Number 14A
2015-10-23 13:44:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 231144 TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE PATRICIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 700 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 ...PATRICIA... ...THE STRONGEST EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE ON RECORD... ...HEADING FOR POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC LANDFALL IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 105.6W ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...200 MPH...325 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...880 MB...25.99 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * San Blas to Punta San Telmo A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within about 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Patricia was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 105.6 West. Patricia is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected later this morning, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast this afternoon. On the forecast track, the core of Patricia will make landfall in the hurricane warning area this afternoon or evening. Maximum sustained winds remain near 200 mph (325 km/h) with higher gusts. Patricia is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible today, but Patricia is expected to remain an extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane through landfall. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 880 mb (25.99 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to first reach the hurricane warning area this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are beginning to spread across portions of the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area later today. RAINFALL: Patricia is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 12 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches, over the Mexican states of Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima, MIchoacan and Guerrero through Saturday. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. STORM SURGE: An extremely dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the right of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Patricia are already affecting portions of the southern coast of Mexico, and will spread northwestward during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
Tags: number
public
advisory
patricia
Hurricane PATRICIA Graphics
2015-10-23 10:51:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 23 Oct 2015 08:36:06 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 23 Oct 2015 08:50:47 GMT
Tags: graphics
patricia
hurricane
hurricane graphics
Hurricane PATRICIA Forecast Discussion Number 14
2015-10-23 10:34:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 230834 TCDEP5 HURRICANE PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 400 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 Data from three center fixes by the Hurricane Hunters indicate that the intensity, based on a blend of 700 mb-flight level and SFMR-observed surface winds, is near 175 kt. This makes Patricia the strongest hurricane on record in the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility (AOR) which includes the Atlantic and the eastern North Pacific basins. The minimum central pressure estimated from the aircraft data, 880 mb, is the lowest ever for our AOR. It seems incredible that even more strengthening could occur before landfall later today, but recent microwave imagery shows hints of a concentric eyewall developing. If the trend toward an eyewall replacement continues, it would cause the intensity to at least level off later today. The official forecast shows only a little more strengthening before landfall. Given the very mountainous terrain that Patricia should encounter after landfall, the cyclone should weaken even faster over land than predicted by the normal inland decay rate. Recent center fixes show that the hurricane is gradually turning toward the right, and the initial motion estimate is 340/10 kt. The track forecast scenario remains about the same. Patricia should continue to move around the western periphery of a mid-level anticyclone today and turn north-northeastward ahead of a trough to the northwest tonight and Saturday. The official track forecast is somewhat slower than the latest model consensus and lies between the GFS and ECMWF solutions. The global models continue to depict the development of a cyclone near the Texas coast over the weekend. Based on the predicted upper-level winds, this system should be non-tropical in nature. However this cyclone is expected to draw significant amounts of moisture from Patricia's remnants, and could result in locally heavy rainfall over portions of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico coastal area within the next few days. Refer to statements from local National Weather Service forecast offices for details. We would like to acknowledge deeply the Air Force Hurricane Hunters for their observations establishing Patricia as a record-breaking hurricane. Clearly, without their data, we would never have known just how strong a tropical cyclone it was. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Confidence is high that Patricia will make landfall in the hurricane warning area along the coast of Mexico as an extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane this afternoon or evening. Preparations to protect life and property in the hurricane warning area should have been completed, or rushed to completion, as tropical storm conditions are beginning to affect the area. Residents in low-lying areas near the coast in the hurricane warning area should evacuate immediately, since the storm surge could be catastrophic near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. 2. In addition to the coastal impacts, very heavy rainfall is likely to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides in the Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero continuing into Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 17.0N 105.5W 175 KT 200 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 18.8N 105.4W 180 KT 205 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 21.7N 104.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 36H 24/1800Z 24.5N 102.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
Tags: number
discussion
patricia
forecast
Summary for Hurricane PATRICIA (EP5/EP202015)
2015-10-23 10:33:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...PATRICIA... ...THE STRONGEST EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE ON RECORD... ...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC LANDFALL IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO LATER TODAY... As of 4:00 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 the center of PATRICIA was located near 17.0, -105.5 with movement NNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 880 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 200 mph.
Tags: summary
patricia
hurricane
Hurricane PATRICIA Public Advisory Number 14
2015-10-23 10:33:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 230833 TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE PATRICIA ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 400 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 ...PATRICIA... ...THE STRONGEST EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE ON RECORD... ...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC LANDFALL IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 105.5W ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...200 MPH...325 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...880 MB...25.99 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * San Blas to Punta San Telmo A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within about 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Patricia was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 105.5 West. Patricia is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected later this morning, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast this afternoon. On the forecast track, the core of Patricia will make landfall in the hurricane warning area this afternoon or evening. Reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 200 mph (325 km/h) with higher gusts. Patricia is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible today, but Patricia is expected to remain an extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane through landfall. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 880 mb (25.99 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to first reach the hurricane warning area this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are beginning to spread across portions of the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area later today. RAINFALL: Patricia is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 12 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches, over the Mexican states of Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima, MIchoacan and Guerrero through Saturday. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. STORM SURGE: An extremely dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the right of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Patricia are already affecting portions of the southern coast of Mexico, and will spread northwestward during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
Tags: number
public
advisory
patricia
Sites : [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] next »