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Hurricane PATRICIA Public Advisory Number 17
2015-10-24 04:42:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 240242 TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE PATRICIA ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 1000 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 ...PATRICIA WEAKENING BUT REMAINS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.2N 104.6W ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM NNW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM SE OF PUERTO VALLARTA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Hurricane Watch for Mexico from east of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * San Blas to Punta San Telmo A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas * North of San Blas to El Roblito A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Patricia was located near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 104.6 West. Patricia is moving toward the north-northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h). Patricia should continue to move farther inland over southwestern Mexico, and move quickly north-northeastward across western and northern Mexico through Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Patricia is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Rapid weakening is forecast, with Patricia expected to become a tropical storm tomorrow morning, and a tropical depression tomorrow afternoon. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 946 mb (27.94 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring across the hurricane warning area. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue across portions of the warning area and in inland areas near the center through early Saturday. RAINFALL: Patricia is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 12 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches, over the Mexican states of Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan, and Guerrero through Saturday. These rains are likely to produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. STORM SURGE: Water levels are expected to gradually subside overnight but remain above normal through late Saturday. Near the coast, large and destructive waves are forecast to continue overnight. SURF: Swells generated by Patricia are likely to affect the southwest coast of Mexico for the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake/Stewart
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Hurricane PATRICIA Forecast Advisory Number 17
2015-10-24 04:41:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 24 2015 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 240241 TCMEP5 HURRICANE PATRICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 0300 UTC SAT OCT 24 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR MEXICO FROM EAST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO LAZARO CARDENAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN BLAS TO PUNTA SAN TELMO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO LAZARO CARDENAS * NORTH OF SAN BLAS TO EL ROBLITO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 104.6W AT 24/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 946 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 110SE 80SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 330SE 270SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 104.6W AT 24/0300Z AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 104.9W FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 22.7N 103.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 25.0N 101.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.2N 104.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART
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Hurricane PATRICIA Graphics
2015-10-24 01:52:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 23 Oct 2015 23:52:08 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 23 Oct 2015 21:06:31 GMT
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Hurricane PATRICIA Public Advisory Number 16A
2015-10-24 01:51:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 232351 TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE PATRICIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 700 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE PATRICIA MOVING FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.5N 104.9W ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM WNW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM SW OF GUADALAJARA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...924 MB...27.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * San Blas to Punta San Telmo A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas * North of San Blas to El Roblito A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Patricia was located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 104.9 West. Patricia is moving toward the north-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue with some increase in forward speed tonight and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Patricia should continue to move inland over southwestern Mexico. Patricia is expected to move quickly north-northeastward across western and northern Mexico through Saturday. Satellite images indicate that Patricia has continued to weaken, and maximum sustained winds are estimated to be near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher gusts. Patricia is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Patricia is forecast to rapidly weaken over the mountains of Mexico and dissipate on Saturday. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 924 mb (27.29 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring across the hurricane warning area. Tropical storm conditions should continue to spread across portions of the warning area. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area this evening. RAINFALL: Patricia is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 12 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches, over the Mexican states of Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan, and Guerrero through Saturday. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. STORM SURGE: An extremely dangerous storm surge is expected to continue to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the right of where the center of Patricia made landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Patricia are already affecting portions of the southern coast of Mexico, and will spread northwestward during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake/Stewart
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Summary for Hurricane PATRICIA (EP5/EP202015)
2015-10-24 01:28:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE PATRICIA MOVING FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 7:00 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 the center of PATRICIA was located near 19.5, -104.9 with movement NNE at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 924 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 160 mph.
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