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Hurricane PATRICIA Graphics

2015-10-24 07:58:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 24 Oct 2015 05:58:32 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 24 Oct 2015 03:05:29 GMT

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Hurricane PATRICIA Public Advisory Number 17A

2015-10-24 07:57:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 100 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 240557 TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE PATRICIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 100 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015 ...PATRICIA WEAKENING BUT STILL A STRONG HURRICANE AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.4N 104.0W ABOUT 5 MI...75 KM N OF APOZOLCO MEXICO ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SW OF ZACATECAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Hurricane Warning. The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued north of Playa Perula. A Tropical Storm Warning continues in effect from Playa Perula eastward to Lazaro Cardenas, Mexico. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Playa Perula to Lazaro Cardenas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are likely occurring within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Patricia was located near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 104.0 West. Patricia is moving toward the north-northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h). Patricia is forecast to move quickly north-northeastward farther inland over northern and northeastern Mexico during the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Patricia is a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Rapid weakening is expected to continue, and Patricia is forecast to become a tropical storm later this morning, and a tropical depression this afternoon. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.64 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue across portions of the warning area and over inland areas, especially in higher elevations, near the center through this morning. RAINFALL: Patricia is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 12 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches, over the Mexican states of Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan, and Guerrero through Saturday. These rains are likely to produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. During the past 24 hours, a rainfall total of 10.25 inches (260 mm) has been reported at Nevado De Colima in Jalisco state. STORM SURGE: Water levels are expected to gradually subside overnight but remain above normal through late today. Near the coast, large and destructive waves are forecast to continue overnight. SURF: Swells generated by Patricia are likely to affect the southwest coast of Mexico for the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Stewart

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Hurricane PATRICIA Graphics

2015-10-24 04:51:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 24 Oct 2015 02:42:33 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 24 Oct 2015 02:50:44 GMT

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Hurricane PATRICIA Forecast Discussion Number 17

2015-10-24 04:44:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 240244 TCDEP5 HURRICANE PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 1000 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 Satellite and surface data indicate that the center of Patricia made landfall at about 615 PM CDT (2315 UTC) near Cuixmala, Mexico with maximum sustained winds estimated at 145 kt/165 mph. Since that time, the eye has become obscured, with a large circular area of deep convection continuing near the center. The initial wind speed is reduced to 115 kt in agreement with the TAFB Dvorak classification. Rapid weakening should continue as the cyclone interacts with the mountains of Mexico. The forecast intensity is largely based on the Decay-SHIPS model, but is a little lower than that model due to the very high terrain. Patricia should move to the north-northeast and northeast ahead of a mid-level trough over the south-central United States until it dissipates in a day or so. The global models continue to depict the development of a cyclone near the Texas coast over the weekend and this system should be non-tropical in nature. However, this cyclone is expected to draw significant amounts of moisture from Patricia's remnants, and could result in locally heavy rainfall over portions of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico coastal area within the next few days. Refer to statements from local National Weather Service forecast offices for details. An unconfirmed sustained wind report of 185 mph and a gust to 211 mph was received from a NOAA/NWS Hydrometeorological Automated Data System (HADS) elevated station (295 ft) at Chamela-Cuixmala, Mexico near the time of landfall. This observation should be considered unofficial until it has been quality controlled. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Now that Patricia has moved inland, while the coastal threat is decreasing, strong and damaging winds, especially at higher elevations, will persist through Saturday morning. 2. Very heavy rainfall is likely to cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides in the Mexican states of Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero through Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 20.2N 104.6W 115 KT 130 MPH...INLAND 12H 24/1200Z 22.7N 103.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 24H 25/0000Z 25.0N 101.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake/Stewart

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Hurricane PATRICIA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17

2015-10-24 04:42:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 24 2015 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 240242 PWSEP5 HURRICANE PATRICIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 0300 UTC SAT OCT 24 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PATRICIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAN BLAS 34 96 X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) P VALLARTA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) P VALLARTA 50 91 X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MANZANILLO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MANZANILLO 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART

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