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Hurricane NEWTON Graphics
2016-09-07 07:45:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 07 Sep 2016 05:45:26 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 07 Sep 2016 03:04:11 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane NEWTON (EP5/EP152016)
2016-09-07 07:44:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CENTER OF NEWTON OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA... ...EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER MAINLAND MEXICO SOON... As of 12:00 AM MDT Wed Sep 7 the center of NEWTON was located near 28.0, -111.9 with movement N at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 985 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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Hurricane NEWTON Public Advisory Number 10A
2016-09-07 07:44:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1200 AM MDT WED SEP 07 2016 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 070544 TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE NEWTON INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152016 1200 AM MDT WED SEP 07 2016 ...CENTER OF NEWTON OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA... ...EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER MAINLAND MEXICO SOON... SUMMARY OF 1200 AM MDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.0N 111.9W ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM W OF GUAYMAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 010 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Guaymas to Puerto Libertad A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto San Andresito to Punta Abreojos * Loreto to Bahia San Juan Bautista * Topolobampo to Guaymas For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1200 AM MDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Newton was located near latitude 28.0 North, longitude 111.9 West. Newton is moving toward the north near 17 mph (28 km/h), and a turn toward the north-northeast is expected later today. On the forecast track, the center of Newton will make landfall along the coast of northwestern Mexico in the hurricane warning area this morning. After landfall, the center of Newton will move inland over northwestern Mexico and move into southeastern Arizona by this afternoon. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before landfall in northwestern Mexico, with rapid weakening expected afterward. Newton is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm shortly after landfall, and dissipate by early Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: For the Mexican mainland, hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning during the next few hours, and preparations to protect life and property should be complete. Tropical storm conditions will continue spreading northward tonight within the warning area in northwestern Mexico. For the Baja California peninsula, tropical storm conditions will gradually subside during the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions could spread into portions of southeastern Arizona by this afternoon. RAINFALL: Newton is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 8 to 12 inches over the Mexican state of Baja California Sur, and 4 to 8 inches over northern Sinaloa and Sonora states through today. Isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches are possible in Baja California Sur. Moisture associated with Newton is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts over southeastern Arizona and southern New Mexico through Thursday. In all of these locations, heavy rain could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, especially in mountainous terrain. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of the track of the center within the hurricane warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Elsewhere, elevated water levels are expected in areas of onshore wind. SURF: Large swells generated by Newton are expected to affect the coast of southwestern Mexico through this morning, but will begin to subside later today. Large swells are occurring along the coast of Baja California Sur and should spread northward through the Gulf of California today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane NEWTON Graphics
2016-09-07 05:10:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 07 Sep 2016 02:32:23 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 07 Sep 2016 03:04:11 GMT
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Hurricane NEWTON Forecast Discussion Number 10
2016-09-07 04:32:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT TUE SEP 06 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 070232 TCDEP5 HURRICANE NEWTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152016 900 PM MDT TUE SEP 06 2016 The cloud pattern of Newton has not changed much since the previous advisory, so the initial intensity remains a possibly generous 65 kt, with the strongest winds likely found east of the center over the Gulf of California. Little change in intensity is forecast before Newton moves inland over northwestern Mexico early Wednesday. Rapid weakening is expected after that time, but Newton could still reach southeastern Arizona as a tropical storm on Wednesday. Newton's surface circulation is forecast to dissipate by 36 hours. The initial motion estimate is 350/15. Newton is positioned between a mid-level ridge centered over the south-central United States and a mid- to upper-level trough moving into the western United States. Newton should move northward and then north-northeastward under the influence of these steering features through dissipation. The new NHC Track forecast is an update of the previous one and is close to the multi-model consensus. Newton is a large tropical cyclone with hazards extending well away from the center, and these hazards will affect portions of northwestern Mexico and southeastern Arizona during the next day or so. Moisture associated with the remnants of Newton are likely to cause heavy rains and localized flash flooding over parts of Arizona and New Mexico Wednesday and Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 27.3N 112.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 29.8N 111.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 24H 08/0000Z 32.7N 110.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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