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Tropical Storm NEWTON Forecast Discussion Number 12

2016-09-07 16:37:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 AM MDT WED SEP 07 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 071437 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM NEWTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152016 900 AM MDT WED SEP 07 2016 Even after landfall, Newton has been producing a noteworthy burst of deep convection that will be moving into southeastern Arizona very soon. However, the low-level center is becoming partially exposed to the south and southwest of the convection due to almost 30 kt of shear. The maximum winds are reduced to 45 kt based on a steady decay rate, but without observations this estimate is quite uncertain. For what it's worth, the NWS WSR-88D from Tucson, Arizona, is showing 50-kt winds at an elevation of 10,000 ft, so an intensity between 40-45 kt seems reasonable. Newton has turned north-northeastward with an initial motion of 015/16 kt. This motion is expected to continue for the next 12-24 hours before Newton dissipates. After that time, Newton's remnants could turn eastward and move into southern New Mexico and western Texas. Based on the decay rate shown by the intensity models, Newton could still move into Arizona as a tropical storm this afternoon, but it is expected to weaken to a tropical depression by this evening. Regardless of Newton's exact intensity, it is important to remember that wind speeds on the tops of hills and mountains could be higher than the surface wind speeds indicated in the forecast. The rugged terrain should cause the cyclone to dissipate overnight. The main concern with this system will be heavy rainfall that will continue spreading from northwestern Mexico into Arizona and New Mexico over the next day or so. These rains could cause flooding and mud slides. Consult statements from you local weather offices for possible flash flood warnings. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 30.2N 111.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 12H 08/0000Z 32.4N 110.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

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Summary for Tropical Storm NEWTON (EP5/EP152016)

2016-09-07 16:37:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...NEWTON CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER NORTHERN SONORA... ...HIGH WIND AND FLASH FLOOD WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO... As of 9:00 AM MDT Wed Sep 7 the center of NEWTON was located near 30.2, -111.3 with movement NNE at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

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Tropical Storm NEWTON Public Advisory Number 12

2016-09-07 16:37:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 AM MDT WED SEP 07 2016 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 071436 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM NEWTON ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152016 900 AM MDT WED SEP 07 2016 ...NEWTON CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER NORTHERN SONORA... ...HIGH WIND AND FLASH FLOOD WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.2N 111.3W ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NNW OF HERMOSILLO MEXICO ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM S OF TUCSON ARIZONA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. High wind watches and wind advisories are in effect for portions of southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico. Flash flood watches are in effect for portions of southeastern Arizona, southern New Mexico, and extreme western Texas. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Newton was located near latitude 30.2 North, longitude 111.3 West. Newton is moving toward the north-northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue until Newton dissipates tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Newton will move into southeastern Arizona this afternoon. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued rapid weakening is forecast, and Newton should weaken to a tropical depression over southeastern Arizona by this evening and dissipate overnight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) mainly to the south and east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue over northern portions of the Mexican state of Sonora through this afternoon and could spread into southeastern Arizona during the next few hours. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. RAINFALL: Newton is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches, and possible isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches, over the Mexican state of Sonora. Moisture associated with Newton is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts over southeastern Arizona and southern New Mexico through Wednesday night. This heavy rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides in areas of mountainous terrain. SURF: Swells associated with Newton over the Gulf of California will continue to subside during the day. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT. Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

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Tropical Storm NEWTON Forecast Advisory Number 12

2016-09-07 16:36:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 07 2016 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 071436 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM NEWTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152016 1500 UTC WED SEP 07 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HIGH WIND WATCHES AND WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA... SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...AND EXTREME WESTERN TEXAS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 111.3W AT 07/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 120SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 111.3W AT 07/1500Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 111.5W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 32.4N 110.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.2N 111.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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