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Hurricane NEWTON Public Advisory Number 8A
2016-09-06 19:56:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1200 PM MDT TUE SEP 06 2016 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 061755 TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE NEWTON INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152016 1200 PM MDT TUE SEP 06 2016 ...NEWTON SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD THROUGH BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... ...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.7N 111.4W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF LORETO MEXICO ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM WNW OF LA PAZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Hurricane Warning for the southern portion of Baja California Sur from Todos Santos to Los Barriles, including Cabo San Lucas, and has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning from Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cabo San Lazaro to north of Todos Santos * North of Los Barriles to Mulege * Guaymas to Bahia Kino A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Cabo San Lazaro to Punta Abreojos * North of Mulege to Bahia San Juan Bautista * North of Bahia Tempehuaya to Guaymas * Bahia Kino to Puerto Libertad A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Bahia Kino to Puerto Libertad A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Newton was located near latitude 24.7 North, longitude 111.4 West. Newton is moving toward the northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the north is expected by tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Newton will pass over Baja California Sur today, and emerge over the Gulf of California late this afternoon or evening. The center of Newton should reach the coast of northwestern Mexico early Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are estimated to have decreased near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next 24 hours, and rapid weakening should occur once Newton moves well inland over northwestern Mexico on Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: For the Baja California peninsula, tropical storm and hurricane conditions continue to occur over much of the warned area of the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula. These hazardous wind conditions will spread northward during the remainder of this afternoon and evening within the warning areas. Preparations to protect life and property should have been completed. For the Mexican mainland, hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area by early Wednesday morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected over northwestern Mexico within the warning area beginning this morning, and these conditions will gradually spread northward throughout the day and into tonight. RAINFALL: Newton is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 8 to 12 inches over the Mexican state of Baja California Sur, and 5 to 10 inches over the Mexican states of Sinaloa, Sonora, western Nayarit, and Jalisco, and a small part of Baja California Norte through Wednesday. Isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches are possible in Baja California Sur. Moisture associated with Newton is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts over southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico through Thursday. In all of these locations, heavy rain could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, especially in mountainous terrain. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of the center on the southern Baja California peninsula and mainland Mexico. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Large swells generated by Newton are expected to affect the coast of southwestern Mexico through today, but begin to subside on Wednesday. Large swells are occurring along the coast of Baja California Sur and should spread northward through the Gulf of California today and Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Hurricane NEWTON Graphics
2016-09-06 17:05:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 06 Sep 2016 14:45:48 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 06 Sep 2016 15:05:45 GMT
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Hurricane NEWTON Forecast Discussion Number 8
2016-09-06 16:44:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT TUE SEP 06 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 061444 TCDEP5 HURRICANE NEWTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152016 900 AM MDT TUE SEP 06 2016 Newton's satellite appearance has begun to deteriorate. The cyclone's cloud pattern is characterized by a ragged eye, which has been filling, and breaks in the western eyewall. Deep convection within the central dense overcast (CDO) is asymmetrically distributed, and cloud top temperatures within the CDO have begun to warm significantly. Dvorak T-numbers have decreased to T4.5/77 kt and T4.0/65 kt from TAFB and SAB, respectively, and the initial intensity estimate is lowered to 70 kt, a blend of these values. The center of Newton is expected to traverse the rugged terrain of Baja California Sur today, and its interaction with land should result in steady weakening. After the center emerges in the Gulf of California late this afternoon or evening, it is not expected to spend much time over water before making a second landfall in northwestern Mexico early Wednesday. With an increase in southwesterly shear forecast around that time, either a steady intensity or slow weakening is likely prior to the second landfall. Once Newton moves inland over northwestern Mexico, the low- to mid-level centers are likely to separate when the circulation passes over the Sierra Madre Occidental, and rapid weakening is forecast. The NHC intensity forecast is reduced some compared to the previous one, and is near or just above the multi-model consensus. The initial motion estimate is 325/17. Newton is being steered around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge over the United States lower Mississippi Valley but should turn northward tonight as it become embedded in the flow between the ridge and a trough of low pressure lifting out over the western United States. The northward motion should continue through dissipation well inland over northwestern Mexico or southeastern Arizona. The NHC track forecast is virtually the same as the previous one but just a little faster, and is near the multi-model consensus. Newton continues to be a large tropical cyclone, and hazards extend well away from the center. These hazards will affect a large portion of Baja California Sur and northwestern Mexico during the next day or so. Moisture associated the remnants of Newton are likely to cause heavy rains and localized flash flooding over parts of Arizona and New Mexico Wednesday and Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 24.1N 111.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 26.5N 111.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 24H 07/1200Z 29.7N 111.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 08/0000Z 32.8N 110.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Hurricane NEWTON Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2016-09-06 16:44:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 06 2016 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 061444 PWSEP5 HURRICANE NEWTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152016 1500 UTC TUE SEP 06 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NEWTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PUNTA EUGENIA 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) P ABREOJOS 34 6 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAN JOSE CABO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAN JOSE CABO 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LA PAZ 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LA PAZ 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LA PAZ 64 61 X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) LORETO 34 98 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LORETO 50 60 2(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) LORETO 64 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) P PENASCO 34 X 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HERMOSILLO 34 4 80(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) HERMOSILLO 50 X 14(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) HERMOSILLO 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BAHIA KINO 34 8 72(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) BAHIA KINO 50 X 25(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) BAHIA KINO 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GUAYMAS 34 48 42(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) GUAYMAS 50 X 25(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) GUAYMAS 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) HUATABAMPO 34 58 2(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) LOS MOCHIS 34 59 1(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) CULIACAN 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 115W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Summary for Hurricane NEWTON (EP5/EP152016)
2016-09-06 16:44:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NEWTON BATTERING BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR WITH STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS... As of 9:00 AM MDT Tue Sep 6 the center of NEWTON was located near 24.1, -111.1 with movement NW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 983 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
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