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Hurricane NEWTON Graphics

2016-09-06 11:51:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 06 Sep 2016 08:59:46 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 06 Sep 2016 09:05:48 GMT

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Summary for Hurricane NEWTON (EP5/EP152016)

2016-09-06 10:57:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...NEWTON MAKING LANDFALL NEAR CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO... ...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS SPREADING OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... As of 3:00 AM MDT Tue Sep 6 the center of NEWTON was located near 22.8, -109.9 with movement NNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 979 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

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Hurricane NEWTON Forecast Discussion Number 7

2016-09-06 10:56:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 AM MDT TUE SEP 06 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 060855 TCDEP5 HURRICANE NEWTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152016 300 AM MDT TUE SEP 06 2016 Newton's intensity appears to have leveled off based on little change in the ragged 45-nmi diameter mid- to upper-level eye noted in conventional and microwave satellite imagery. Now that the eye is interacting with the mountainous terrain of Baja California Sur, gradual weakening should begin. However, since Newton's wind field is much larger than that of a typical hurricane, slower weakening is expected and Newton is forecast to still be a hurricane when it makes a second landfall along the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico in 24-30 hours. In fact, the GFS and ECMWF models show Newton losing no strength at all before the next landfall occurs. After moving inland over northwestern Mexico, Newton is forecast to rapidly weaken due to interaction with the high terrain of the Sierra Madre Occidental mountains. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and is above the intensity consensus model IVCN, close to a blend of the SHIPS and LGEM models. Newton is now moving north-northwestward or 335/15 kt based on microwave satellite fixes. The center of the large eye of Newton is currently moving over or very near Cabo San Lucas, with most of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula now inside the eye. The hurricane is forecast to move steadily around the western periphery of a strong deep-layer ridge currently located over the south-central United States and northwestern Mexico. This stable steering pattern will result in Newton turning northward later today, and then turning toward the north-northeast or northeast tonight and on Wednesday, bringing the center of the hurricane near the northwestern coast of Mexico Wednesday morning. The NHC track guidance remains tightly packed, and the new official track forecast is essentially just an extension of the previous advisory track, and lies near the GFS-ECMWF model solutions. Since Newton is forecast to remain a hurricane until the second landfall occurs, the Government of Mexico has issued a hurricane warning for a portion of mainland Mexico. Although Newton is expected to degenerate into a remnant low over the southwestern United States by 48 hours, deep moisture ahead of the cyclone will result in heavy rains that can produce flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 22.8N 109.9W 80 KT 90 MPH...NEAR CABO SAN LUCAS 12H 06/1800Z 24.7N 110.9W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 24H 07/0600Z 27.7N 111.6W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 07/1800Z 30.9N 111.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 08/0600Z 33.4N 109.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Hurricane NEWTON Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7

2016-09-06 10:55:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 06 2016 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 060855 PWSEP5 HURRICANE NEWTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152016 0900 UTC TUE SEP 06 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NEWTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PUNTA EUGENIA 34 1 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) P ABREOJOS 34 3 16(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 18 X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) SAN JOSE CABO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAN JOSE CABO 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAN JOSE CABO 64 66 X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) LA PAZ 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LA PAZ 50 95 X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) LA PAZ 64 35 1(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) LORETO 34 64 35(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LORETO 50 2 77(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) LORETO 64 X 18(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) P PENASCO 34 X 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) HERMOSILLO 34 2 46(48) 32(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) HERMOSILLO 50 X 1( 1) 20(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) HERMOSILLO 64 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BAHIA KINO 34 2 58(60) 18(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) BAHIA KINO 50 X 8( 8) 25(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) BAHIA KINO 64 X 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GUAYMAS 34 5 84(89) 2(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) GUAYMAS 50 X 29(29) 9(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) GUAYMAS 64 X 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) HUATABAMPO 34 21 51(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) HUATABAMPO 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 52 10(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) CULIACAN 34 8 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) MAZATLAN 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 115W 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Hurricane NEWTON Forecast Advisory Number 7

2016-09-06 10:53:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 06 2016 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 060853 TCMEP5 HURRICANE NEWTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152016 0900 UTC TUE SEP 06 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR MAINLAND MEXICO FROM GUAYMAS NORTHWARD TO BAHIA KINO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CABO SAN LAZARO TO MULEGE...INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS * GUAYMAS TO BAHIA KINO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO TO PUNTA ABREOJOS * NORTH OF MULEGE TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA * MAZATLAN TO GUAYMAS * BAHIA KINO TO PUERTO LIBERTAD A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAHIA KINO TO PUERTO LIBERTAD A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 109.9W AT 06/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB EYE DIAMETER 45 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 35SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT.......160NE 180SE 90SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 210SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 109.9W AT 06/0900Z AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 109.5W FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 24.7N 110.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...160NE 180SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 27.7N 111.6W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 180SE 70SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 30.9N 111.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 33.4N 109.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.8N 109.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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