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Hurricane NEWTON Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6

2016-09-06 04:55:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 06 2016 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 060255 PWSEP5 HURRICANE NEWTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152016 0300 UTC TUE SEP 06 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NEWTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT YUMA AZ 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ENSENADA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X 6( 6) 8(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) P ABREOJOS 34 2 20(22) 14(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) P ABREOJOS 50 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 53 2(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) SAN JOSE CABO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAN JOSE CABO 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAN JOSE CABO 64 49 4(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) LA PAZ 34 87 13(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LA PAZ 50 49 49(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) LA PAZ 64 4 47(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) LORETO 34 7 89(96) 2(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) LORETO 50 X 84(84) 6(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) LORETO 64 X 33(33) 8(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) P PENASCO 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 8(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) P PENASCO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HERMOSILLO 34 X 12(12) 66(78) 2(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) HERMOSILLO 50 X 1( 1) 33(34) 6(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) HERMOSILLO 64 X X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BAHIA KINO 34 X 15(15) 74(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) BAHIA KINO 50 X 1( 1) 59(60) 2(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) BAHIA KINO 64 X X( X) 23(23) 3(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) GUAYMAS 34 2 38(40) 45(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) GUAYMAS 50 X 8( 8) 46(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) GUAYMAS 64 X X( X) 18(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) HUATABAMPO 34 5 44(49) 5(54) 1(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) HUATABAMPO 50 X 10(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) HUATABAMPO 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) LOS MOCHIS 34 10 32(42) 1(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) LOS MOCHIS 50 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CULIACAN 34 8 5(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) ISLAS MARIAS 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MAZATLAN 34 5 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAN BLAS 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P VALLARTA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 8 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ISLA SOCORRO 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 115W 34 2 6( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Hurricane NEWTON Forecast Advisory Number 6

2016-09-06 04:54:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 06 2016 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 060254 TCMEP5 HURRICANE NEWTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152016 0300 UTC TUE SEP 06 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS MADE SEVERAL CHANGES TO WARNINGS AND WATCHES WITH THIS ADVISORY. THE HURRICANE WARNING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO MULEGE. A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM GUAYMAS TO PUERTO LIBERTAD. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM MAZATLAN TO SOUTH OF BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CABO SAN LAZARO TO MULEGE...INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO TO PUNTA ABREOJOS * NORTH OF MULEGE TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA * MAZATLAN TO PUERTO LIBERTAD A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GUAYMAS TO PUERTO LIBERTAD A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 109.0W AT 06/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT.......100NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT.......140NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 210SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 109.0W AT 06/0300Z AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 108.6W FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 23.3N 110.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 26.1N 111.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT...130NE 140SE 90SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 29.2N 111.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 80SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 32.1N 110.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.3N 109.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Summary for Hurricane NEWTON (EP5/EP152016)

2016-09-06 04:54:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...NEWTON CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES BAJA CALIFORNIA... ...NEW WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED... As of 9:00 PM MDT Mon Sep 5 the center of NEWTON was located near 21.3, -109.0 with movement NW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 979 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

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Hurricane NEWTON Public Advisory Number 6

2016-09-06 04:54:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 PM MDT MON SEP 05 2016 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 060254 TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE NEWTON ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152016 900 PM MDT MON SEP 05 2016 ...NEWTON CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES BAJA CALIFORNIA... ...NEW WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.3N 109.0W ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM SSE OF LA PAZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has made several changes to warnings and watches with this advisory. The Hurricane Warning along the east coast of the Baja California peninsula has been extended northward to Mulege. A Hurricane Watch has been issued along the coast of mainland Mexico from Guaymas to Puerto Libertad. The Tropical Storm Watch from Mazatlan to south of Bahia Tempehuaya has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning. The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued from Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cabo San Lazaro to Mulege, including Cabo San Lucas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Cabo San Lazaro to Punta Abreojos * North of Mulege to Bahia San Juan Bautista * Mazatlan to Puerto Libertad A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Guaymas to Puerto Libertad A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Newton was located near latitude 21.3 North, longitude 109.0 West. Newton is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through early Tuesday. A turn toward the north-northwest, and then to the north, are expected late Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, Newton should be near or over the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula early Tuesday morning, move over portions of the southern Baja California peninsula Tuesday, and move into northwestern Mexico on early Wednesday morning. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast tonight, before the hurricane reaches the southern Baja California peninsula. Gradual weakening is expected after Newton makes landfall. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: For the Baja California peninsula, winds are expected to reach tropical storm strength within the next few hours, with hurricane conditions expected by early Tuesday morning. These conditions will spread northward over the Baja California peninsula through Tuesday. Preparations to protect life and property should be near completion. For the Mexican mainland, tropical storm conditions are expected over northwestern Mexico within the warning area beginning Tuesday morning, and these conditions will gradually spread northward throughout the day. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area early Wednesday. RAINFALL: Newton is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches for coastal portions of the Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit, Sinaloa and Sonora as well as much of the state of Baja California Sur, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches through Tuesday night. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are expected across portions of southern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico from late Wednesday into Thursday, with localized amounts of up to 3 inches possible. These rains could result in dangerous flash flooding. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall on both the southern Baja California peninsula and mainland Mexico. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Large swells generated by Newton are expected to affect the coast of southwestern Mexico through Tuesday, and begin to subside on Wednesday. Swells should increase across the southern and central portions of the Baja California peninsula today and Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT. Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

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