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Hurricane Florence Wind Speed Probabilities Number 47

2018-09-11 04:41:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 11 2018 262 FONT11 KNHC 110241 PWSAT1 HURRICANE FLORENCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 47 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 0300 UTC TUE SEP 11 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 120 KTS...140 MPH...220 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 3(15) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 3(17) ATLANTIC CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) ATLANTIC CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 19(23) 5(28) BALTIMORE MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) BALTIMORE MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 17(22) 5(27) DOVER DE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) DOVER DE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 21(27) 5(32) ANNAPOLIS MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) ANNAPOLIS MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 23(29) 5(34) WASHINGTON DC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) WASHINGTON DC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 18(27) 5(32) CAPE HENLOPEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) CAPE HENLOPEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 21(35) 5(40) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 28(39) 5(44) PAX RIVER NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) PAX RIVER NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 26(39) 5(44) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 3(12) WALLOPS CDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 32(42) 6(48) CHARLOTTESVIL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) CHARLOTTESVIL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 39(58) 5(63) RICHMOND VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 2(22) RICHMOND VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 43(61) 5(66) DANVILLE VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 2(24) DANVILLE VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 38(66) 3(69) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 20(25) 4(29) NORFOLK NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 1(13) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 31(31) 36(67) 3(70) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 20(26) 3(29) NORFOLK VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 1(14) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 33(33) 35(68) 3(71) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 20(27) 2(29) OCEANA NAS VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 2(14) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 46(47) 32(79) 2(81) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 26(41) 3(44) ELIZABETH CTY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 15(20) 2(22) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 38(55) 5(60) GREENSBORO NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 2(19) GREENSBORO NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) 42(74) 5(79) RALEIGH NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 31(39) 2(41) RALEIGH NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 1(18) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 45(45) 38(83) 4(87) ROCKY MT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 37(54) 2(56) ROCKY MT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 23(28) 1(29) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 78(85) 8(93) 1(94) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 49(49) 13(62) 1(63) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 12(35) 3(38) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 43(43) 35(78) 3(81) FAYETTEVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 27(41) 2(43) FAYETTEVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 18(23) X(23) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 25(36) 4(40) CHARLOTTE NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) CHARLOTTE NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 75(77) 16(93) 1(94) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 46(46) 28(74) 2(76) CHERRY PT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 25(50) 2(52) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 86(92) 6(98) X(98) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 67(67) 16(83) X(83) NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 41(41) 19(60) 1(61) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 85(91) 6(97) 1(98) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 66(66) 17(83) 1(84) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 41(41) 21(62) 1(63) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 73(75) 16(91) 1(92) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 45(45) 25(70) 2(72) SURF CITY NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 24(47) 2(49) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 69(71) 17(88) 1(89) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 37(37) 27(64) 1(65) WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 22(39) 2(41) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 75(79) 10(89) X(89) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 46(46) 16(62) X(62) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 14(38) 1(39) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 28(54) 2(56) FLORENCE SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 14(20) 2(22) FLORENCE SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 20(30) 3(33) COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) COLUMBIA SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 51(52) 23(75) 1(76) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 20(39) 1(40) LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 13(21) 2(23) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 58(59) 15(74) 1(75) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 15(36) 2(38) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 10(17) 2(19) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) 21(53) 2(55) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 13(20) 1(21) GEORGETOWN SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 16(33) 2(35) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 12(19) 3(22) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 3(18) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) 2(15) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Hurricane Florence Forecast Advisory Number 47

2018-09-11 04:41:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 11 2018 713 WTNT21 KNHC 110241 TCMAT1 HURRICANE FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 47 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 0300 UTC TUE SEP 11 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FLORENCE. STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WATCHES ARE LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS ON TUESDAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 62.4W AT 11/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 944 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 25SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT.......130NE 130SE 80SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 150SE 90SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 62.4W AT 11/0300Z AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 61.7W FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 26.5N 64.5W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 27.9N 67.5W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 29.6N 70.4W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 31.3N 73.2W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 34.0N 76.5W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 35.5N 78.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 36.5N 79.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.9N 62.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Hurricane Florence Graphics

2018-09-10 22:57:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 10 Sep 2018 20:57:21 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 10 Sep 2018 21:22:12 GMT

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Hurricane Florence Forecast Discussion Number 46

2018-09-10 22:55:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Sep 10 2018 366 WTNT41 KNHC 102055 TCDAT1 Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 46 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 500 PM AST Mon Sep 10 2018 Unfortunately, the models were right. Florence has rapidly intensified into an extremely dangerous hurricane, with 30-second GOES-16 visible imagery showing well-defined eyewall mesovortices rotating inside of the eye. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft found peak SFMR winds of about 120 kt, with flight-level winds and dropsonde measurements also supporting that value for the initial wind speed estimate. Notably, the aircraft data also show the size of the hurricane-force winds has doubled in the past 12 hours. None of the guidance suggest that Florence has peaked in intensity, and this is supported by a continuation of a low-shear environment, and even warmer waters over the next 36 hours. Thus, the intensity forecast is raised from the previous one, bringing Florence close to category 5 strength tomorrow. Near landfall, the vertical wind shear could increase, along with the increasing likelihood of eyewall cycles. While the intensity forecast shows some weakening of the maximum winds near landfall, the wind field is expected to grow with time, which increases the storm surge and inland wind threats. The bottom line is that there is high confidence that Florence will be a large and extremely dangerous hurricane, regardless of its exact intensity. Florence has recently turned west-northwestward, still moving at 11 kt. The hurricane is expected to accelerate in that direction over the next day or two due to building mid-level ridge over the northwestern Atlantic Ocean. By late Wednesday, a turn toward the northwest is forecast due to the orientation of the Atlantic ridge, along with a decrease in forward speed due to a new ridge building over the Great Lakes. There is a new player in the forecast as well, with the disturbance over the northwestern Caribbean adding some uncertainty in the ridge strength over the southeastern United States. Perhaps it isn't surprising that the model spread has increased on this cycle, with a small eastward shift overall. The official forecast is nudged in the direction of the trend, but is west of the model consensus. It is important not to focus on the exact forecast track as average NHC errors at days 4 and 5 are about 140 and 180 n mi, respectively, and dangerous hazards will extend well away from the center. The NOAA G-IV jet will continue to conduct synoptic surveillance missions every 12 h through at least Wednesday. In addition, special 0600 UTC and 1800 UTC radiosonde launches have been expanded to additional upper-air stations across the U.S. are to collect extra data for the numerical models. Key Messages: 1. A life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the coastlines of South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia, and a Storm Surge Watch will likely be issued for some of these areas by Tuesday morning. All interests from South Carolina into the mid- Atlantic region should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Life-threatening freshwater flooding is likely from a prolonged and exceptionally heavy rainfall event, which may extend inland over the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic for hundreds of miles as Florence is expected to slow down as it approaches the coast and moves inland. 3. Damaging hurricane-force winds are likely along portions of the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina, and a Hurricane Watch will likely be issued by Tuesday morning. Damaging winds could also spread well inland into portions of the Carolinas and Virginia. 4. Large swells affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East Coast will continue this week, resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 25.4N 61.1W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 26.0N 63.2W 130 KT 150 MPH 24H 11/1800Z 27.0N 66.2W 135 KT 155 MPH 36H 12/0600Z 28.6N 69.3W 135 KT 155 MPH 48H 12/1800Z 30.4N 72.2W 130 KT 150 MPH 72H 13/1800Z 33.7N 77.0W 120 KT 140 MPH 96H 14/1800Z 35.6N 78.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 120H 15/1800Z 36.5N 79.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Blake

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Hurricane Florence Wind Speed Probabilities Number 46

2018-09-10 22:54:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 10 2018 260 FONT11 KNHC 102054 PWSAT1 HURRICANE FLORENCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 46 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 2100 UTC MON SEP 10 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 120 KTS...140 MPH...220 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 3(13) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) 3(22) BALTIMORE MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 2(20) DOVER DE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) DOVER DE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20(24) 3(27) ANNAPOLIS MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) ANNAPOLIS MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 21(26) 4(30) WASHINGTON DC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) WASHINGTON DC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 15(21) 3(24) CAPE HENLOPEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) CAPE HENLOPEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 17(27) 3(30) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 25(33) 3(36) PAX RIVER NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) PAX RIVER NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 22(32) 4(36) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) WALLOPS CDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 33(42) 5(47) CHARLOTTESVIL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) CHARLOTTESVIL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 38(54) 4(58) RICHMOND VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 2(18) RICHMOND VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 48(68) 4(72) DANVILLE VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 27(29) 2(31) DANVILLE VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 33(55) 3(58) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) 2(20) NORFOLK NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 32(56) 3(59) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) 2(21) NORFOLK VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 31(56) 2(58) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) 2(20) OCEANA NAS VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 38(38) 32(70) 2(72) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 18(27) 2(29) ELIZABETH CTY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 1(12) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 47(66) 4(70) GREENSBORO NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 25(27) 1(28) GREENSBORO NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 34(34) 46(80) 3(83) RALEIGH NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 39(48) 2(50) RALEIGH NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 1(25) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 42(42) 42(84) 2(86) ROCKY MT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 37(52) 2(54) ROCKY MT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 23(27) 1(28) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 74(75) 9(84) X(84) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 33(33) 9(42) 2(44) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 8(20) 1(21) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 48(48) 37(85) 2(87) FAYETTEVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 41(60) 2(62) FAYETTEVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 26(34) 1(35) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 36(49) 3(52) CHARLOTTE NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 1(15) CHARLOTTE NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 73(73) 19(92) 1(93) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 39(39) 28(67) 1(68) CHERRY PT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 22(41) 1(42) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 89(90) 6(96) 1(97) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 57(57) 13(70) X(70) NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 31(31) 15(46) 1(47) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 89(90) 7(97) X(97) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 57(57) 17(74) X(74) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 31(31) 19(50) 1(51) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 79(79) 16(95) 1(96) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 47(47) 28(75) 1(76) SURF CITY NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 28(54) X(54) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 76(76) 17(93) 1(94) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 45(45) 29(74) 2(76) WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 31(52) 1(53) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 86(86) 7(93) 1(94) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 59(59) 17(76) X(76) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 35(35) 20(55) 1(56) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 36(36) 34(70) 2(72) FLORENCE SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 24(34) 1(35) FLORENCE SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) X(17) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 28(42) 2(44) COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 1(14) COLUMBIA SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 64(64) 21(85) 1(86) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 31(31) 28(59) 1(60) LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 21(35) 1(36) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 71(71) 13(84) X(84) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 34(34) 19(53) 1(54) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 16(30) 2(32) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 45(45) 24(69) X(69) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 18(33) 1(34) GEORGETOWN SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 11(17) 1(18) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 21(45) 1(46) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) 2(16) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 16(27) 2(29) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 16(22) 2(24) AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) AUGUSTA GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 11(17) 2(19) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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