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Hurricane Florence Forecast Advisory Number 48
2018-09-11 10:54:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 11 2018 870 WTNT21 KNHC 110853 TCMAT1 HURRICANE FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 48 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 0900 UTC TUE SEP 11 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FROM EDISTO BEACH...SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA-VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FROM EDISTO BEACH... SOUTH CAROLINA... NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA-VIRGINIA BORDER... INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA-VIRGINIA BORDER * ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS...INCLUDING THE NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA-VIRGINIA BORDER * ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FLORENCE. ADDITIONAL WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE... IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 64.1W AT 11/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 944 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 25SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT.......130NE 130SE 80SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 150SE 120SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 64.1W AT 11/0900Z AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 63.3W FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 27.2N 66.4W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 28.7N 69.4W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 30.5N 72.2W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 32.2N 74.5W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 34.3N 77.1W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 35.2N 78.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 36.0N 79.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.4N 64.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane Florence Graphics
2018-09-11 04:44:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 11 Sep 2018 02:44:08 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 11 Sep 2018 03:22:15 GMT
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Hurricane Florence Forecast Discussion Number 47
2018-09-11 04:42:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 10 2018 808 WTNT41 KNHC 110242 TCDAT1 Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 47 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 10 2018 The rapid intensification of Florence ended just after the last advisory, with the central pressure falling to near 939 mb. Since that time, the eyewall convection has become a bit ragged and the latest central pressure from the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is near 944 mb. The initial intensity will remain a possibly generous 120 kt for this advisory based on the aircraft winds. Microwave imagery suggests that Florence may be starting an eyewall replacement cycle. However, the winds from the Hurricane Hunter did not clearly indicate the presence of an outer eyewall. Florence should remain in a light shear environment and over sea surface temperatures near 29C for at least the next 48 h. Thus, there is little other than eyewall replacement cycles to keep the hurricane from intensifying further as indicated by all of the intensity guidance. The new intensity forecast calls for continued strengthening to near category 5 strength, although at a slower rate than what occurred during the last 30 h. Florence is expected to encounter southwesterly shear near the 72 h point, which could cause slight weakening before landfall. However, there remains high confidence that Florence will be a large and extremely dangerous hurricane, regardless of its exact intensity. The initial motion is 290/11. A building mid-level ridge over the northwestern Atlantic is expected to steer Florence west-northwestward to northwestward with an increase in forward speed during the next 48 h. After that time, a marked decrease in forward speed is likely as another ridge builds over the Great Lakes to the north of Florence. The track guidance continues to show some spread between the ECMWF on the left side of the envelope and the GFS on the right side. Overall, though, the guidance has again shifted a little to the right, and the 72-96 h points are nudged just a little to the right from the previous forecast. It is important not to focus on the exact forecast track as average NHC errors at days 3, 4, and 5 are about 100, 140 and 180 n mi, respectively, and dangerous hazards will extend well away from the center. The NOAA G-IV jet will continue to conduct synoptic surveillance missions every 12 h through at least Wednesday. In addition, special 0600 UTC and 1800 UTC radiosonde launches have been expanded to additional upper-air stations across the U.S. to collect extra data for the numerical models. The next Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission into Florence is scheduled for near 12Z. Key Messages: 1. A life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the coastlines of South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia, and a Storm Surge Watch will likely be issued for some of these areas by Tuesday morning. All interests from South Carolina into the mid- Atlantic region should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Life-threatening freshwater flooding is likely from a prolonged and exceptionally heavy rainfall event, which may extend inland over the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic for hundreds of miles as Florence is expected to slow down as it approaches the coast and moves inland. 3. Damaging hurricane-force winds are likely along portions of the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina, and a Hurricane Watch will likely be issued by Tuesday morning. Damaging winds could also spread well inland into portions of the Carolinas and Virginia. 4. Large swells affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East Coast will continue this week, resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 25.9N 62.4W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 26.5N 64.5W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 12/0000Z 27.9N 67.5W 130 KT 150 MPH 36H 12/1200Z 29.6N 70.4W 135 KT 155 MPH 48H 13/0000Z 31.3N 73.2W 130 KT 150 MPH 72H 14/0000Z 34.0N 76.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 96H 15/0000Z 35.5N 78.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 120H 16/0000Z 36.5N 79.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Hurricane Florence (AT1/AL062018)
2018-09-11 04:41:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...FLORENCE CHANGES LITTLE IN STRENGTH DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS... ...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES LIKELY TO BE ISSUED ON TUESDAY... As of 11:00 PM AST Mon Sep 10 the center of Florence was located near 25.9, -62.4 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 944 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 140 mph.
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Hurricane Florence Public Advisory Number 47
2018-09-11 04:41:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 10 2018 284 WTNT31 KNHC 110241 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Florence Advisory Number 47 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 10 2018 ...FLORENCE CHANGES LITTLE IN STRENGTH DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS... ...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES LIKELY TO BE ISSUED ON TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.9N 62.4W ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM SSE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 1085 MI...1745 KM ESE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB...27.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states should monitor the progress of Florence. Storm Surge and Hurricane watches are likely be issued for portions of these areas on Tuesday. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Florence was located near latitude 25.9 North, longitude 62.4 West. Florence is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A west- northwestward to northwestward motion and an increase in forward speed are expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Florence will move over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and the Bahamas Tuesday and Wednesday, and approach the coast of North Carolina or South Carolina on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Florence is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is expected during the next 36 hours, and Florence is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane through Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The latest minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 944 mb (27.88 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East Coast. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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