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Tropical Storm EARL Public Advisory Number 14
2016-08-05 22:37:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT FRI AUG 05 2016 000 WTNT35 KNHC 052037 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 400 PM CDT FRI AUG 05 2016 ...EARL RESTRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE... ...TORRENTIAL RAINS COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.8N 95.0W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM NW OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM ESE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of Mexico from Laguna Verde to Tecolutla. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Dos Bocas westward to Tecolutla, Mexico. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 95.0 West. Earl is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next day or so. On the forecast track, Earl will move inland into the Mexican state of Veracruz later tonight. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before landfall. Tropical-storm-force winds have expanded and now extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions will spread westward across the warning area this afternoon and tonight. RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 12 inches over portions of the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Puebla, Tabasco and Veracruz through Saturday morning with possible isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches. These rains could result in life- threatening flash floods and mudslides. Reports from the Meteorological Service of Mexico indicate that at least 7.63 inches (194 mm) of rainfall has occurred at Yamonho Chiapas and 5.64 inches (143 mm) has occurred at Boca del Cerro thus far. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm EARL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2016-08-05 22:37:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 05 2016 000 FONT15 KNHC 052037 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM EARL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 2100 UTC FRI AUG 05 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT TUXPAN MX 34 6 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) VERACRUZ MX 34 87 2(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) VERACRUZ MX 50 8 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm EARL Graphics
2016-08-05 19:34:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 05 Aug 2016 17:34:55 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 05 Aug 2016 15:05:33 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm EARL (AT5/AL052016)
2016-08-05 19:32:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...EARL EXPECTED TO BRING TORRENTIAL RAINS TO SOUTHERN MEXICO... ...RAINS COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES... As of 1:00 PM CDT Fri Aug 5 the center of EARL was located near 18.6, -94.6 with movement W at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm EARL Public Advisory Number 13A
2016-08-05 19:32:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 PM CDT FRI AUG 05 2016 000 WTNT35 KNHC 051732 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 100 PM CDT FRI AUG 05 2016 ...EARL EXPECTED TO BRING TORRENTIAL RAINS TO SOUTHERN MEXICO... ...RAINS COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.6N 94.6W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM N OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM ESE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning east of Puerto Dos Bocas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Dos Bocas westward to Laguna Verde, Mexico. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 94.6 West. Earl is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next day or so. On the forecast track, Earl will move inland into the Mexican state of Veracruz later today or tonight. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. No significant change in strength is anticipated before landfall. An Air Force plane will check Earl in a couple of hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions will spread westward across the warning area today and tonight. RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 12 inches over portions of the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Puebla, Tabasco and Veracruz through Saturday morning with possible isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches. These rains could result in life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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