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Tropical Storm EARL Forecast Discussion Number 15

2016-08-06 04:43:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT FRI AUG 05 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 060243 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 1000 PM CDT FRI AUG 05 2016 The convective pattern of Earl has changed little in both conventional and microwave satellite imagery since the last reconnaissance flight a few hours ago. Therefore, the initial intensity is being maintained at 50 kt for this advisory. Earl should begin to weaken shortly after the center moves inland, and continue to weaken over the next 24 hours. The cyclone could degenerate into a remnant low by 24 hours if it moves a little faster than currently forecast, which would cause greater interaction with the mountainous terrain of eastern Mexico. Earl continues to move westward at about 275/07 kt. This general motion is forecast to continue for the next 24 hours, and Earl is expected to make landfall about midway between Veracruz and Alvarado, Mexico within the next hour. The official forecast track is similar to the previous advisory track and lies slightly north of the consensus model, TVCN. The main threat from Earl will continue to be heavy rainfall that could cause flash floods and mudslides across a large portion of Central America and southeastern Mexico. The Mexican Weather Service (SMN) recently relayed reports of additional rainfall totals of 2-4 inches (50-100 mm) since 8 am EDT/1200 UTC this morning across portions of south-central Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 19.0N 95.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...NEAR VERACRUZ 12H 06/1200Z 19.0N 96.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 07/0000Z 19.0N 97.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Summary for Tropical Storm EARL (AT5/AL052016)

2016-08-06 04:43:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...EARL MAKING LANDFALL SOUTHEAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO... ...TORRENTIAL RAINS COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES... As of 10:00 PM CDT Fri Aug 5 the center of EARL was located near 19.0, -95.9 with movement W at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

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Tropical Storm EARL Public Advisory Number 15

2016-08-06 04:43:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT FRI AUG 05 2016 000 WTNT35 KNHC 060243 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 1000 PM CDT FRI AUG 05 2016 ...EARL MAKING LANDFALL SOUTHEAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO... ...TORRENTIAL RAINS COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.0N 95.9W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning east of Roca Partido. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Roca Partido northward to Tecolutla, Mexico. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 95.9 West. Earl is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. On the forecast track, Earl will move inland between Veracruz and Alvarado in the Mexican state of Veracruz within the next hour. Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected to begin after Earl's center moves inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km), mainly northwest and northeast of the center. A sustained wind of 41 mph (65 km/h) and a gust to 52 mph (84 km/h) were recently reported in Veracruz, Mexico. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread westward across the warning area tonight and early Saturday morning. RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 8 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts 18 inches over portions of the Mexican states of Veracruz, Hidalgo, Oaxaca, Guerrero, Puebla, Tabasco, and Campeche through Saturday night. These rains could result in life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Tropical Storm EARL Forecast Advisory Number 15

2016-08-06 04:42:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 06 2016 000 WTNT25 KNHC 060242 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 0300 UTC SAT AUG 06 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING EAST OF ROCA PARTIDO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ROCA PARTIDO NORTHWARD TO TECOLUTLA...MEXICO. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 95.9W AT 06/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......100NE 70SE 30SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 95.9W AT 06/0300Z AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 95.6W FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 19.0N 96.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 40SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 19.0N 97.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED INLAND REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 95.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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