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Tropical Storm EARL Graphics
2016-08-06 10:38:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 06 Aug 2016 08:38:19 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 06 Aug 2016 08:33:34 GMT
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earl
Tropical Storm EARL Forecast Discussion Number 16
2016-08-06 10:35:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT SAT AUG 06 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 060835 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 400 AM CDT SAT AUG 06 2016 The center of Earl made landfall near 0200 UTC just south of Veracruz, Mexico. Since then, the center has moved farther inland and the cloud pattern has decayed. There is little data near the center at this time, so it is estimated that the intensity has decreased to 35 kt. Continued rapid weakening is expected, and the low-level circulation of Earl should dissipate over the mountains of Mexico after 12 hours. The remnants of Earl are expected to move westward and interact with an area of disturbed weather along the Pacific coast of Mexico, which could lead to the formation of a tropical cyclone in that area in 2-3 days time. The initial motion is 275/9, and a general westward motion is forecast until the cyclone dissipates. The main threat from Earl and its remnants will continue to be heavy rainfall that could cause flash floods and mudslides across a large portion of Central America and southeastern Mexico. The rain threat will continue after the cyclone dissipates. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 19.0N 97.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 19.0N 98.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Tropical Storm EARL (AT5/AL052016)
2016-08-06 10:33:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...EARL WEAKENING OVER MEXICO... ...TORRENTIAL RAINS COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES... As of 4:00 AM CDT Sat Aug 6 the center of EARL was located near 19.0, -97.0 with movement W at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm EARL Public Advisory Number 16
2016-08-06 10:33:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT SAT AUG 06 2016 000 WTNT35 KNHC 060833 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 400 AM CDT SAT AUG 06 2016 ...EARL WEAKENING OVER MEXICO... ...TORRENTIAL RAINS COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.0N 97.0W ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM WSW OF VERACRUZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Roca Partido northward to Tecolutla, Mexico. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 97.0 West. Earl is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue today. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast as Earl moves into the mountains of Mexico, and the cyclone is forecast to dissipate by Saturday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) mainly over water to the northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions over the warning area should end later this morning. RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 8 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts 18 inches over portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Hidalgo, Oaxaca, Puebla, Tlaxcala and Veracruz through Saturday night. These rains could result in life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm EARL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2016-08-06 10:33:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 06 2016 000 FONT15 KNHC 060833 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM EARL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 0900 UTC SAT AUG 06 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT VERACRUZ MX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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