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Tropical Storm EARL Forecast Discussion Number 13
2016-08-05 16:32:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT FRI AUG 05 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 051432 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 1000 AM CDT FRI AUG 05 2016 Satellite images and surface observations indicate that a large portion of the circulation is over the southern Bay of Campeche. It appears that the cloud pattern was beaten hard by the terrain, but, one can still see a vigorous cyclonic rotation. This was also confirmed by this morning's radiosondes from the area. I prefer to keep the initial intensity generously at 35 kt at this time, and then adjust it, if necessary, when an Air Force reconnaissance plane checks the system later today. Little change in intensity is expected before Earl moves inland again later today or tonight. The cyclone is forecast to dissipate on Saturday over the high terrain of southern Mexico. The circulation is moving toward the west or 280 degrees at 9 kt. A westward or south-of-due-west track is anticipated until landfall and beyond. There has not been a change in the guidance, and the NHC forecast is similiar to the previous one. The main threat from Earl continues to be heavy rains over a large portion of Central America and southeastern Mexico, and the combination of Earl with a broader-scale low-level cyclonic gyre over the area enhances the rainfall potential. The Mexican Weather Service (SMN) relayed to NHC that about 7 inches (180 mm) of rain were measured in Chiapas during the last 24 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 18.6N 94.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 18.7N 95.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 24H 06/1200Z 18.5N 97.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm EARL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2016-08-05 16:31:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 05 2016 000 FONT15 KNHC 051431 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM EARL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 1500 UTC FRI AUG 05 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT VERACRUZ MX 34 29 9(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Summary for Tropical Storm EARL (AT5/AL052016)
2016-08-05 16:31:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...EARL BEATEN BY HIGH TERRAIN BUT STILL DRENCHING PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... As of 10:00 AM CDT Fri Aug 5 the center of EARL was located near 18.6, -94.2 with movement W at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm EARL Public Advisory Number 13
2016-08-05 16:31:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT FRI AUG 05 2016 000 WTNT35 KNHC 051431 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 1000 AM CDT FRI AUG 05 2016 ...EARL BEATEN BY HIGH TERRAIN BUT STILL DRENCHING PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.6N 94.2W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NNE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM ESE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Ciudad del Carmen westward to Laguna Verde, Mexico. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 94.2 West. Earl is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next day or so. On the forecast track, Earl will move inland into the Mexican state of Veracruz later today or tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. No significant change in strength is anticipated before landfall. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on a ship observation is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions will spread westward across the warning area today and tonight. RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 12 inches over portions of the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Puebla, Tabasco and Veracruz through Saturday morning with possible isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches. These rains could result in life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm EARL Forecast Advisory Number 13
2016-08-05 16:31:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 05 2016 000 WTNT25 KNHC 051431 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 1500 UTC FRI AUG 05 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CIUDAD DEL CARMEN WESTWARD TO LAGUNA VERDE...MEXICO. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 94.2W AT 05/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 94.2W AT 05/1500Z AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 93.6W FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 18.7N 95.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 18.5N 97.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 94.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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