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Summary for Tropical Storm EARL (AT5/AL052016)
2016-08-06 01:49:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...EARL APPROACHING THE EASTERN COAST OF MEXICO... ...TORRENTIAL RAINS COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES... As of 7:00 PM CDT Fri Aug 5 the center of EARL was located near 18.8, -95.6 with movement W at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm EARL Public Advisory Number 14A
2016-08-06 01:49:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 PM CDT FRI AUG 05 2016 000 WTNT35 KNHC 052349 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 700 PM CDT FRI AUG 05 2016 ...EARL APPROACHING THE EASTERN COAST OF MEXICO... ...TORRENTIAL RAINS COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.8N 95.6W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM E OF ALVARADO MEXICO ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...16 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Dos Bocas westward to Tecolutla, Mexico. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 95.6 West. Earl is moving toward the west near 10 mph (16 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next day or so. On the forecast track, Earl will move inland into the Mexican state of Veracruz within the next few hours. Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast before landfall. After landfall occurs, rapid weakening of Earl's peak winds is expected. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions will spread westward across the warning area this evening and early Saturday morning. RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 12 inches over portions of the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Puebla, Tabasco, and Veracruz through Saturday morning with possible isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches. These rains could result in life- threatening flash floods and mudslides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm EARL Graphics
2016-08-05 23:05:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 05 Aug 2016 20:42:20 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 05 Aug 2016 21:05:39 GMT
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Tropical Storm EARL Forecast Discussion Number 14
2016-08-05 22:59:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT FRI AUG 05 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 052059 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 400 PM CDT FRI AUG 05 2016 An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating Earl this afternoon found a maximum 850-mb-flight-level wind of 59 kt and a peak SFMR wind of 49 kt in the eastern semicircle. Based on these data, the initial intensity has been increased to 50 kt. Additional aircraft SFMR wind data and recent ASCAT surface wind data also indicate that the 34-kt wind radii have increased outward considerably in the northern semicircle, which has required a northward expansion of the tropical storm warning area along the east coast of Mexico. Earl is moving westward or 275/07 kt. A general westward motion is forecast to continue until landfall occurs in about 12 hours or so. After that time, a motion toward the west or west-southwest is expected as Earl's center interacts with the high terrain of the Sierra Madre Oriental mountains. There has not been any significant change in the track guidance, so the new official forecast track is close to the previous one and the TVCN consensus model. Little change in intensity is anticipated before landfall occurs later tonight. However, the intensity forecasts at 12 and 24 hours had to be increased based on Earl's stronger initial intensity. Due to the large 34-kt wind radii, it is possible that Earl could still be a tropical storm when it is located inland at 24 hours. The main threat from Earl continues to be heavy rains that could cause flash floods and mudslides across a large portion of Central America and southeastern Mexico. The Mexican Weather Service (SMN) has relayed several reports of rainfall totals already exceeding 5-7 inches (125-180 mm) as of 8 am EDT/1200 UTC this morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 18.8N 95.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 18.8N 96.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 24H 06/1800Z 18.8N 96.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Storm EARL (AT5/AL052016)
2016-08-05 22:37:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...EARL RESTRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE... ...TORRENTIAL RAINS COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES... As of 4:00 PM CDT Fri Aug 5 the center of EARL was located near 18.8, -95.0 with movement W at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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