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Tropical Storm EARL Graphics

2016-08-05 13:39:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 05 Aug 2016 11:39:14 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 05 Aug 2016 09:05:38 GMT

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Summary for Tropical Storm EARL (AT5/AL052016)

2016-08-05 13:37:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...EARL HUGGING THE COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE... As of 7:00 AM CDT Fri Aug 5 the center of EARL was located near 18.5, -93.5 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Tropical Storm EARL Public Advisory Number 12A

2016-08-05 13:37:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 700 AM CDT FRI AUG 05 2016 000 WTNT35 KNHC 051137 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 700 AM CDT FRI AUG 05 2016 ...EARL HUGGING THE COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.5N 93.5W ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM ESE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM ENE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Ciudad del Carmen westward to Laguna Verde, Mexico. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was estimated near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 93.5 West. Earl is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the west and a decrease in forward speed are expected later today. On the forecast track, the center of Earl will be moving near the coast along the extreme southern Bay of Campeche today and tonight. Earl will then move into southeastern mainland Mexico on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is likely today or tonight, with weakening expected on Saturday when Earl moves into mainland Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) to the north and east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions will spread westward across the warning area today and tonight. RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 12 inches over portions of the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Puebla, Tabasco and Veracruz through Saturday morning with possible isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches. These rains could result in life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Avila

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Tropical Storm EARL Graphics

2016-08-05 11:09:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 05 Aug 2016 08:39:18 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 05 Aug 2016 09:05:38 GMT

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Tropical Storm EARL Forecast Discussion Number 12

2016-08-05 10:37:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 AM CDT FRI AUG 05 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 050837 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 400 AM CDT FRI AUG 05 2016 Satellite imagery, along with Mexican surface and radar data, shows that the center of Earl is now near the southern coast of the Bay of Campeche west-southwest of Ciudad del Carmen. The associated convection is poorly organized, although radar data shows bands of low-topped showers that are not currently apparent in infrared imagery. There are no recent observations near the area of maximum winds over the Bay of Campeche, so the initial intensity is held at 35 kt based on continuity from the previous advisory. The initial motion is 285/10. A large mid-level ridge near the northern Gulf of Mexico coast should lead to a continued west-northwestward to westward motion for the next 48 hours or so, with this motion taking the center of Earl along the coast of the Bay of Campeche into mainland Mexico. The new forecast track is similar to the previous track and lies just north of the various consensus models. The center of Earl should emerge over the Bay of Campeche later today before final landfall in mainland Mexico. However, significant strengthening is not expected due to the proximity to land and the current level of disorganization. After landfall, Earl should weaken and dissipate over the mountains of central and eastern Mexico. The main threat from Earl continues to be heavy rains over a large portion of Central America and southeastern Mexico, and the combination of Earl with a broader-scale low-level cyclonic gyre over the area enhances the rainfall potential. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 18.4N 92.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 18.5N 94.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 24H 06/0600Z 18.7N 95.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 06/1800Z 18.9N 97.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

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